Sport Picks

England

League One 2025/2026 Home Park

Port Vale

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Plymouth play Port Vale in the League One 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Plymouth averaged 2.03 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Port Vale averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. In past meetings, Plymouth won 3, Port Vale won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 25, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.81 for Plymouth and 0.81 for Port Vale. This points to a Plymouth double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%

Plymouth

20%

Draws

29%

Port Vale

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Plymouth

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence

Plymouth picked up more points recently compared to Port Vale.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.81 vs 0.81 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 66%

Over 2.5 Goals 52%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%

Plymouth Clean Sheet 26%

Port Vale Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 59%

Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Plymouth	Port Vale
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	18	11
Draws	6	6
Losses	6	13
Goals Scored	2.03	0.9
Goals Conceded	1.2	1.4
Expected Goals (xG)	2.00	0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 League One

Plymouth vs Port Vale

Possession: 45% - 56% Cards: 3 - 3

2:1

Nov 22, 2025 League One

Port Vale vs Plymouth

Possession: 57% - 56% Cards: 3 - 1

0:1

May 7, 2023 League One

Port Vale vs Plymouth

Possession: 53% - 52% Cards: 3 - 1

1:3

Dec 2, 2022 League One

Plymouth vs Port Vale

Possession: 60% - 51% Cards: 1 - 1

0:2

Apr 25, 2020 League Two

Plymouth vs Port Vale

Possession: 51% - 57% Cards: 1 - 3

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Plymouth Compare

Top Goalscorer Pepple A.

2 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.54

Avg xA / game 1

Port Vale Compare

Top Goalscorer Hall C.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.57

Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Plymouth 51 / 100

Port Vale 28 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Plymouth Port Vale

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Plymouth or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +18.8%

2.33

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.8%

2.17

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Plymouth attacking → ← attacking Port Vale

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Plymouth scored in 97% of their last 30 games.

Port Vale let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Plymouth went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Port Vale lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

60 Points in last 5 39

2.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.63

1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lincoln City	46	31	10	5	89:41	103
2	Cardiff	46	27	10	9	90:50	91
3	Stockport County	46	22	11	13	71:58	77
4	Bradford City	46	22	11	13	58:51	77
5	Bolton	46	19	18	9	70:52	75
6	Stevenage	46	21	12	13	49:46	75
7	Luton	46	21	11	14	68:56	74
8	Plymouth	46	22	7	17	75:63	73
9	Huddersfield	46	18	13	15	74:64	67
10	Mansfield	46	16	17	13	62:50	65
11	Wycombe	46	17	12	17	69:58	63
12	Reading	46	16	15	15	64:60	63
13	Blackpool	46	17	9	20	54:65	60
14	Doncaster	46	17	9	20	50:69	60
15	Barnsley	46	15	14	17	68:73	59
16	Wigan	46	14	14	18	49:58	56
17	Burton	46	13	15	18	50:60	54
18	Peterborough	46	15	8	23	64:68	53
19	AFC Wimbledon	46	15	8	23	51:72	53
20	Leyton Orient	46	14	10	22	59:71	52
21	Exeter	46	12	13	21	52:61	49
22	Port Vale	46	10	12	24	36:61	42
23	Rotherham	46	10	11	25	41:71	41
24	Northampton	46	9	8	29	39:74	35