Sport Picks

Croatia

3. HNL North

Varteks Varazdin (2011)

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Podravina Ludbreg play Varteks Varazdin (2011) in the 3. HNL North. It looks like a close match. Recently, Podravina Ludbreg averaged 1.5 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. Varteks Varazdin (2011) averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. In past meetings, Podravina Ludbreg won 2, Varteks Varazdin (2011) won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Nov 27, 2021 ended 4:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.60 for Podravina Ludbreg and 0.80 for Varteks Varazdin (2011). This points to a Podravina Ludbreg double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%

Podravina Ludbreg

26%

Draws

31%

Varteks Varazdin (2011)

Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Podravina Ludbreg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Podravina Ludbreg picked up more points recently compared to Varteks Varazdin (2011).
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.60 vs 0.80 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 64%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 86%

Over 2.5 Goals 64%

Over 3.5 Goals 38%

Over 4.5 Goals 19%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%

Podravina Ludbreg Clean Sheet 26%

Varteks Varazdin (2011) Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 77%

Second Half Goal 82%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Podravina Ludbreg	Varteks Varazdin (2011)
Matches Played	30	32
Wins	9	7
Draws	7	9
Losses	14	16
Goals Scored	1.5	1.03
Goals Conceded	2.2	1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 27, 2021 3. HNL North

Podravina Ludbreg vs Varteks Varazdin (2011)

Possession: 41% - 43% Cards: 1 - 4

4:1

Aug 28, 2021 3. HNL North

Varteks Varazdin (2011) vs Podravina Ludbreg

Possession: 43% - 45% Cards: 3 - 1

0:2

Apr 17, 2021 3. HNL North

Podravina Ludbreg vs Varteks Varazdin (2011)

Possession: 49% - 46% Cards: 2 - 4

2:2

Oct 10, 2020 3. HNL North

Varteks Varazdin (2011) vs Podravina Ludbreg

Possession: 51% - 55% Cards: 2 - 0

3:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Podravina Ludbreg 44 / 100

Varteks Varazdin (2011) 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Podravina Ludbreg Varteks Varazdin (2011)

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Podravina Ludbreg or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +23%

2.86

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +10.1%

1.72

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Podravina Ludbreg attacking → ← attacking Varteks Varazdin (2011)

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Podravina Ludbreg scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Varteks Varazdin (2011) let in goals in 81% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 3.75 goals.

Podravina Ludbreg went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Varteks Varazdin (2011) lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

34 Points in last 5 30

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.50

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	NK Polet	22	17	0	5	61:17	51
2	Mladost Zdralovi	22	15	5	2	45:15	50
3	Bjelovar	22	14	3	5	53:26	45
4	Radnik Krizevci	22	14	2	6	57:25	44
5	Medjimurje	22	12	3	7	40:33	39
6	Podravina Ludbreg	22	8	7	7	35:41	31
7	Papuk Orahovica	22	7	4	11	32:43	25
8	Varteks Varazdin (2011)	22	6	4	12	20:39	22
9	NK Koprivnica	22	3	8	11	24:43	17
10	Virovitica	22	5	2	15	25:52	17
11	Podravac Virje	22	4	4	14	23:50	16
12	Rudar Mursko Sredisce	22	4	4	14	25:56	16