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Poggibonsi vs Fulgens Foligno Prediction & H2H Stats

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Serie D - Group E 2024/2025
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Match Events

56' Event
Calderini E.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group E 2024/2025 game between Poggibonsi and Fulgens Foligno finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fulgens Foligno.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Poggibonsi
30%
Draws
41%
Fulgens Foligno
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Fulgens Foligno

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Fulgens Foligno come out ahead of Poggibonsi on wins alone.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Poggibonsi taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group E 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Poggibonsi Clean Sheet 20%
Fulgens Foligno Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Poggibonsi Fulgens Foligno
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 7 15
Draws 8 8
Losses 17 7
Goals Scored 0.78 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Fulgens Foligno vs Poggibonsi
1:0
Dec 22, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Poggibonsi vs Fulgens Foligno
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Poggibonsi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Fulgens Foligno Compare

Top Goalscorer Calderini E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Poggibonsi 42 / 100
Fulgens Foligno 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Poggibonsi Fulgens Foligno

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Poggibonsi found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (32 games).

Defensive concern: Fulgens Foligno conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Poggibonsi went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Poggibonsi VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Poggibonsi

(Home)
10 May
Orvietana
1 : 0
Poggibonsi
03 May
Poggibonsi
1 : 0
Scandicci
26 Apr
Cannara
3 : 2
Poggibonsi
19 Apr
Poggibonsi
0 : 0
Tau
12 Apr
Camaiore Calcio
1 : 1
Poggibonsi
Page 1 of 7

Fulgens Foligno

(Away)
11 May
Fulgens Foligno
1 : 2
Orvietana
04 May
Fulgens Foligno
1 : 0
Poggibonsi
27 Apr
Livorno
2 : 1
Fulgens Foligno
17 Apr
Fulgens Foligno
2 : 1
Seravezza Pozzi
12 Apr
Ghiviborgo
1 : 1
Fulgens Foligno
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Livorno 34 21 9 4 74:44 72
2 Fulgens Foligno 34 17 9 8 61:44 60
3 Seravezza Pozzi 34 16 11 7 53:39 59
4 Ghiviborgo 34 17 4 13 65:57 55
5 Orvietana 34 15 8 11 44:41 53
6 Siena 34 14 10 10 35:32 52
7 Grosseto 34 13 11 10 39:34 50
8 Ostiamare 34 12 9 13 49:53 45
9 Poggibonsi 34 12 7 15 32:36 43
10 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 11 10 13 26:26 43
11 Montevarchi 34 9 14 11 36:39 41
12 Flaminia 34 10 10 14 42:43 40
13 Follonica Gavorrano 34 10 10 14 40:45 40
14 Terranuova Traiana 34 8 15 11 34:47 39
15 Figline 34 9 11 14 29:33 38
16 Sporting Trestina 34 9 11 14 35:45 38
17 Sangiovannese 34 9 9 16 30:38 36
18 Fezzanese 34 6 8 20 35:63 26
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E 2024/2025 (Play Out)