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Poggibonsi vs Grosseto

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

68' Event
Riccobono G.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Grosseto in this Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Grosseto.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Poggibonsi
35%
Draws
32%
Grosseto
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Grosseto lately — more wins on the board than Poggibonsi.
  • Poggibonsi are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Grosseto here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 33%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Poggibonsi Clean Sheet 20%
Grosseto Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Poggibonsi Grosseto
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 7 19
Draws 8 7
Losses 15 8
Goals Scored 0.83 1.74
Goals Conceded 1.27 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.90 0.98
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Poggibonsi vs Grosseto
0:1
Oct 26, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Grosseto vs Poggibonsi
3:1
Aug 23, 2025 Club Friendly
Grosseto vs Poggibonsi
3:1
Jan 19, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Poggibonsi vs Grosseto
0:1
Sep 22, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Grosseto vs Poggibonsi
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Poggibonsi 36 / 100
Grosseto 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Poggibonsi Grosseto

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Poggibonsi's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Poggibonsi stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Grosseto conceded in 59% of 34 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Poggibonsi VS Grosseto
0.67 Goals Scored 1.13
0.83 Goals Conceded 1.13
33% Over 1.5 63%
17% Over 2.5 38%
17% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Poggibonsi

(Home)
10 May
Orvietana
1 : 0
Poggibonsi
03 May
Poggibonsi
1 : 0
Scandicci
26 Apr
Cannara
3 : 2
Poggibonsi
19 Apr
Poggibonsi
0 : 0
Tau
12 Apr
Camaiore Calcio
1 : 1
Poggibonsi
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Grosseto

(Away)
14 Aug
Grosseto
2 : 3
Guidonia 1937
08 Aug
Grosseto
3 : 1
Terranuova Traiana
05 Aug
Grosseto
2 : 2
Tau
02 Aug
Perugia
1 : 1
Grosseto
29 Jul
Grosseto
1 : 2
San Donato Tavarnelle
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Grosseto 34 22 6 6 58:25 72
2 Tau 34 18 9 7 53:33 63
3 Prato 34 20 5 9 49:29 63
4 Siena 34 17 9 8 57:35 60
5 Seravezza Pozzi 34 15 12 7 42:29 57
6 Terranuova Traiana 34 14 9 11 28:30 51
7 Foligno 34 14 9 11 45:37 51
8 Scandicci 34 11 15 8 39:32 48
9 Montevarchi 34 10 16 8 28:32 46
10 Sporting Trestina 34 10 12 12 40:42 42
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 9 13 12 30:35 40
12 Ghiviborgo 34 10 10 14 42:44 40
13 Orvietana 34 9 11 14 33:37 38
14 Follonica Gavorrano 34 9 10 15 36:49 37
15 Camaiore Calcio 34 9 8 17 41:54 35
16 Poggibonsi 34 7 10 17 29:46 31
17 Cannara 34 6 8 20 24:59 26
18 Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro 34 2 16 16 20:46 22
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Out)