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Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Poland Poland

Division 1 Stadion Miejski, Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki host Polonia Warszawa in the Division 1. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Recent numbers: Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki at 1.21 goals for, 1.82 against; Polonia Warszawa at 1.43 for, 1.57 against. Head-to-head, Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki have won 4 to Polonia Warszawa's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on Mar 14, 2026, ending 3:2. xG projections (1.44 - 1.50) back Polonia Warszawa to edge this. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
15%
Draws
53%
Polonia Warszawa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Polonia Warszawa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Polonia Warszawa come out ahead of Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki on wins alone.
  • Polonia Warszawa are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Division 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Clean Sheet 16%
Polonia Warszawa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Polonia Warszawa
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 7 13
Draws 8 3
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 1.21 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.82 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Division 1
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa
3:2
Aug 30, 2025 Division 1
Polonia Warszawa vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
2:1
Jan 18, 2025 Club Friendly
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa
3:1
Jul 12, 2024 Club Friendly
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa
4:2
Feb 5, 2022 Club Friendly
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 28 / 100
Polonia Warszawa 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Polonia Warszawa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Polonia Warszawa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Polonia Warszawa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).

Recent resilience: Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki VS Polonia Warszawa
1.5 Goals Scored 1.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

(Home)
02 Oct
Radomiak Radom
7 : 2
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
19 Sept
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
2 : 0
LKS Lodz
13 Sept
Unia Skierniewice
3 : 2
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
04 Sept
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
1 : 0
Warta Poznan
01 Sept
Podhale Nowy Targ
3 : 1
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
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Polonia Warszawa

(Away)
03 Oct
Jagiellonia
1 : 2
Polonia Warszawa
19 Sept
Polonia Warszawa
2 : 0
Chrobry Glogow
11 Sept
Polonia Warszawa
2 : 2
Polonia Bytom
05 Sept
S. Rzeszow
2 : 1
Polonia Warszawa
02 Sept
Polkowice
0 : 1
Polonia Warszawa
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 9 5 3 1 15:8 18
2 Termalica Bruk-Bet 9 5 1 3 14:12 16
3 Warta Poznan 9 5 0 4 17:13 15
4 LKS Lodz 9 4 3 2 13:9 15
5 Legnica 9 4 2 3 14:9 14
6 Polonia Warszawa 9 4 2 3 15:12 14
7 S. Rzeszow 9 4 2 3 10:15 14
8 Lechia Gdansk 9 4 1 4 17:15 13
9 Chrobry Glogow 9 3 3 3 11:8 12
10 Pogon Siedlce 8 3 3 2 9:7 12
11 Ruch Chorzow 9 3 3 3 9:11 12
12 Arka Gdynia 9 3 2 4 11:11 11
13 Unia Skierniewice 9 3 1 5 10:15 10
14 Odra Opole 9 2 3 4 7:9 9
15 Polonia Bytom 9 1 6 2 14:17 9
16 Stal Mielec 9 2 3 4 14:23 9
17 Podbeskidzie 9 0 8 1 12:14 8
18 Puszcza 8 2 0 6 8:12 6
Promotion - Ekstraklasa 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Division 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Division 2 2027/2028 (Main)