Sport Picks

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Poland

Division 1 Stadion Miejski, Grodzisk Mazowiecki

Stal Mielec

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki host Stal Mielec in the Division 1. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki have averaged 1.31 scored and 1.69 conceded recently, against Stal Mielec's 1.82 scored and 2.14 conceded. Head-to-head, Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki have won 1 to Stal Mielec's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on Apr 6, 2026, ending 1:2. The numbers (2.44 xG vs 1.88) point toward Stal Mielec. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

15%

Draws

34%

Stal Mielec

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence

Look at the last few games and Stal Mielec come out ahead of Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki on wins alone.
Model gives Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki a 51% chance of winning this.
Regular Division 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 94%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 28%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Clean Sheet 10%

Stal Mielec Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	Stal Mielec
Matches Played	29	28
Wins	8	10
Draws	8	5
Losses	13	13
Goals Scored	1.31	1.82
Goals Conceded	1.69	2.14
Expected Goals (xG)	2.44	1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2026 Division 1

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec

1:2

Sep 19, 2025 Division 1

Stal Mielec vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 83 / 100

Stal Mielec 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Stal Mielec

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Stal Mielec has conceded goals in 93% of their last 28 outings.

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Stal Mielec's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki VS Stal Mielec

2 Goals Scored 1.63

2.13 Goals Conceded 2.88

88% Over 1.5 100%

75% Over 2.5 75%

75% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History