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Pogon Siedlce vs Puszcza - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Poland Poland

Division 1 Stadion ROSRRiT, Siedlce
Thu, Oct 15, 2026
VS
04:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Pogon Siedlce host Puszcza in the Division 1. This one's hard to separate. Puszcza have shipped 1.46 goals a game lately, while Pogon Siedlce have conceded 1.46 and scored 1.12. Past meetings favor Pogon Siedlce slightly — 2-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 6, 2026, ending 3:0. The numbers (1.50 xG vs 1.00) point toward Pogon Siedlce. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: NG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Pogon Siedlce
15%
Draws
32%
Puszcza
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Pogon Siedlce

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Puszcza have won more games recently than Pogon Siedlce.
  • Win probability leans Pogon Siedlce's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Pogon Siedlce Clean Sheet 68%
Puszcza Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pogon Siedlce Puszcza
Matches Played 26 28
Wins 9 11
Draws 5 3
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.12 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.46 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 6, 2026 Division 1
Puszcza vs Pogon Siedlce
3:0
Aug 24, 2025 Division 1
Pogon Siedlce vs Puszcza
0:0
May 27, 2018 Division 1
Pogon Siedlce vs Puszcza
0:0
Nov 4, 2017 Division 1
Puszcza vs Pogon Siedlce
2:3
Apr 20, 2013 Division 2 - East
Pogon Siedlce vs Puszcza
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pogon Siedlce 77 / 100
Puszcza 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pogon Siedlce Puszcza

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pogon Siedlce Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pogon Siedlce's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

Puszcza's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Recent resilience: Pogon Siedlce stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pogon Siedlce VS Puszcza
1.63 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Pogon Siedlce

(Home)
20 Sept
Pogon Siedlce
2 : 1
Arka Gdynia
12 Sept
Chrobry Glogow
0 : 0
Pogon Siedlce
01 Sept
Kluczevia Stargard
2 : 3
Pogon Siedlce
29 Aug
Pogon Siedlce
2 : 0
Stal Mielec
21 Aug
Lechia Gdansk
1 : 0
Pogon Siedlce
Page 1 of 6

Puszcza

(Away)
02 Oct
KS Wieczysta Krakow
4 : 3
Puszcza
18 Sept
Warta Poznan
3 : 2
Puszcza
11 Sept
Puszcza
1 : 2
LKS Lodz
01 Sept
Plock II
0 : 2
Puszcza
29 Aug
Puszcza
2 : 0
Podbeskidzie
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 9 5 3 1 15:8 18
2 Termalica Bruk-Bet 9 5 1 3 14:12 16
3 Warta Poznan 9 5 0 4 17:13 15
4 LKS Lodz 9 4 3 2 13:9 15
5 Legnica 9 4 2 3 14:9 14
6 Polonia Warszawa 9 4 2 3 15:12 14
7 S. Rzeszow 9 4 2 3 10:15 14
8 Lechia Gdansk 9 4 1 4 17:15 13
9 Chrobry Glogow 9 3 3 3 11:8 12
10 Pogon Siedlce 8 3 3 2 9:7 12
11 Ruch Chorzow 9 3 3 3 9:11 12
12 Arka Gdynia 9 3 2 4 11:11 11
13 Unia Skierniewice 9 3 1 5 10:15 10
14 Odra Opole 9 2 3 4 7:9 9
15 Polonia Bytom 9 1 6 2 14:17 9
16 Stal Mielec 9 2 3 4 14:23 9
17 Podbeskidzie 9 0 8 1 12:14 8
18 Puszcza 8 2 0 6 8:12 6
Promotion - Ekstraklasa 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Division 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Division 2 2027/2028 (Main)