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Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow vs Unia Tarnow

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group IV 2024/2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow play Unia Tarnow in the III Liga - Group IV 2024/2025. Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow are favorites here. Recently, Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow averaged 1.85 goals scored and 1.12 conceded. Unia Tarnow averaged 0.79 goals scored and 3 conceded. In past meetings, Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow won 3, Unia Tarnow won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 7, 2025 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow and 1.00 for Unia Tarnow. This points to a Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
25%
Draws
15%
Unia Tarnow
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow picked up more points recently compared to Unia Tarnow.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 70%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 70%
Over 3.5 Goals 42%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow Clean Sheet 23%
Unia Tarnow Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 79%
Second Half Goal 84%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow Unia Tarnow
Matches Played 34 29
Wins 16 2
Draws 9 4
Losses 9 23
Goals Scored 1.85 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.12 3
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 7, 2025 III Liga - Group IV
Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow vs Unia Tarnow
3:0
Feb 19, 2025 Club Friendly
Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow vs Unia Tarnow
2:0
Nov 16, 2024 III Liga - Group IV
Unia Tarnow vs Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow Compare

Top Goalscorer Majda O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Imiela A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Unia Tarnow Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow 59 / 100
Unia Tarnow 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow Unia Tarnow

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow Win (1)
Secondary Pick Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.2%
1.92
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.2%
1.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow attacking → ← attacking Unia Tarnow

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow scored in 68% of their last 34 games.

Unia Tarnow let in goals in 93% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.67 goals.

Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Unia Tarnow lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

57 Points in last 5 10
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Sandecja Nowy S.34228465:3174
2Podhale Nowy Targ34215867:4368
3Siarka Tarnobrzeg34205976:4265
4Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski34196955:4063
5Avia Swidnik34188877:4462
6Korona Kielce II341710771:5061
7Star Starachowice341671161:4655
8Biala Podlaska341581159:4253
9Chelmianka Chelm341651374:6253
10Wisloka Debica341441661:5546
11Czarni Polaniec341181552:6441
12Wisla II341181572:6041
13Swidniczanka Swidnik341091544:5439
14Wislanie Skawina341091541:6039
15Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow341071750:6837
16Wiazownica34791838:7030
17Lewart Lubartow34542531:8519
18Unia Tarnow34242828:10610