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Stadium Background

Pogradeci vs Lushnja

Albania Albania

Kategoria e Parë 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Preknicaj K.
80' Event
Pius F.
81' Event
Canka M.

AI Match Summary

The Kategoria e Parë 2025/2026 game between Pogradeci and Lushnja finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pogradeci.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Pogradeci
30%
Draws
23%
Lushnja
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Pogradeci

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Lushnja haven't matched Pogradeci's recent run of results.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Pogradeci taking it.
  • Regular Kategoria e Parë 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Pogradeci Clean Sheet 68%
Lushnja Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pogradeci Lushnja
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 18 6
Draws 7 6
Losses 6 18
Goals Scored 1.9 0.87
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.59 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Kategoria e Parë
Pogradeci vs Lushnja
3:1
Nov 23, 2025 Kategoria e Parë
Lushnja vs Pogradeci
1:2
Aug 24, 2025 Kategoria e Parë
Pogradeci vs Lushnja
0:0
Feb 28, 2025 Kategoria e Parë
Pogradeci vs Lushnja
2:2
Nov 25, 2024 Kategoria e Parë
Pogradeci vs Lushnja
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pogradeci Compare

Top Goalscorer Pius F.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Preknicaj K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.22
Avg xA / game 0.8

Lushnja Compare

Top Goalscorer Canka M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.48

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pogradeci 95 / 100
Lushnja 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pogradeci Lushnja

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pogradeci Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pogradeci's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Lushnja let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Pogradeci stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pogradeci VS Lushnja
1.38 Goals Scored 0.6
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.8
75% Over 1.5 60%
38% Over 2.5 60%
13% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

Pogradeci

(Home)
20 Sept
Pogradeci
0 : 0
Flamurtari
16 Sept
Kukesi
0 : 3
Pogradeci
12 Sept
Pogradeci
2 : 1
Kastrioti
05 Sept
Iliria Kruja
0 : 0
Pogradeci
12 Aug
Pogradeci
0 : 1
Skenderbeu Korca
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Lushnja

(Away)
03 May
Lushnja
1 : 4
Kastrioti
25 Apr
Burreli
1 : 0
Lushnja
19 Apr
Lushnja
0 : 3
Iliria Kruja
11 Apr
Besa Kavaje
0 : 0
Lushnja
04 Apr
Lushnja
2 : 1
Korabi Peshkopi
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Laci 33 24 7 2 60:23 79
2 Skenderbeu Korca 33 24 5 4 57:25 77
3 Pogradeci 33 20 8 5 63:31 68
4 Iliria Kruja 33 11 12 10 32:33 45
5 Besa Kavaje 33 10 9 14 41:43 39
6 Kastrioti 33 11 6 16 44:57 39
7 Burreli 33 9 10 14 27:45 37
8 Korabi Peshkopi 33 8 12 13 31:39 36
9 AF Luftetari 33 7 13 13 37:43 34
10 Kukesi 33 8 7 18 31:50 31
11 Apolonia Fier 33 6 10 17 31:44 28
12 Lushnja 33 5 11 17 26:47 26
Promotion - Abissnet Superiore (Main)
Promotion - Abissnet Superiore 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Kategoria e Parë 2025/2026 (Relegation)