Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Poland vs Netherlands

Europe Europe

Euro 2024 Volksparkstadion
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Poland play Netherlands in the Euro 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Poland averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. Netherlands averaged 2.25 goals scored and 0.63 conceded. In past meetings, Poland won 0, Netherlands won 2, and they drew 3. Their last match on Nov 14, 2025 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Poland and 1.75 for Netherlands. This points to a Netherlands double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Poland
28%
Draws
50%
Netherlands
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Netherlands

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Netherlands has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Poland.
  • Model forecasts a 50% win probability edge for Netherlands.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Euro 2024 provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Poland Clean Sheet 12%
Netherlands Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Poland Netherlands
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 15
Draws 7 9
Losses 9 6
Goals Scored 1.75 2.25
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 14, 2025 World Championship
Poland vs Netherlands
1:1
Sep 4, 2025 World Championship
Netherlands vs Poland
1:1
Jun 16, 2024 Euro
Poland vs Netherlands
1:2
Sep 22, 2022 UEFA Nations League
Poland vs Netherlands
0:2
Jun 11, 2022 UEFA Nations League
Netherlands vs Poland
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Poland Compare

Top Goalscorer Buksa A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Netherlands Compare

Top Goalscorer Gakpo C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Weghorst W.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Poland 22 / 100
Netherlands 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Poland Netherlands

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NET Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Poland scored in 93% of their last 30 games.

Netherlands let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Poland went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Netherlands lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Poland VS Netherlands
1.75 Goals Scored 2.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Germany32108:27
2Switzerland31205:35
3Hungary31022:53
4Scotland30122:71
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Spain33005:09
2Italy31113:34
3Croatia30213:62
4Albania30123:51
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1England31202:15
2Denmark30302:23
3Slovenia30302:23
4Serbia30211:22
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Austria32016:46
2France31202:15
3Netherlands31114:44
4Poland30123:61
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Romania31114:34
2Belgium31112:14
3Slovakia31113:34
4Ukraine31112:44
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Portugal32015:36
2Turkey32015:56
3Georgia31114:44
4Czech Republic30123:51