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Poland vs Romania - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League PGE Narodowy, Warsaw
Poland Logo

Poland

6 - 0
FT
Romania Logo

Romania

Our Tip

Match Events

22'
Dragusin R.
24' Event
Lewandowski R.
(Penalty)
27'
Sub
Mihaila V. In: Coubis A.
Out: Mihaila V.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The UEFA Nations League game between Poland and Romania finished 6-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Poland.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Poland
20%
Draws
30%
Romania
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Poland

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Romania have managed 1.63 goals a game lately — Poland are scoring more at 1.71.
  • Poland are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Poland have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Poland Clean Sheet 13%
Romania Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Poland Romania
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 14 14
Draws 6 6
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.71 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.42 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 2, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Poland vs Romania
6:0
Jun 10, 2017 World Championship
Poland vs Romania
3:1
Nov 11, 2016 World Championship
Romania vs Poland
0:3
Feb 2, 2013 Friendly International
Poland vs Romania
4:1
Nov 14, 2009 Friendly International
Poland vs Romania
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Poland Compare

Top Goalscorer Lewandowski R.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Zielinski P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Romania Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Poland 84 / 100
Romania 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Poland Romania

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Poland Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Poland's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Romania's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 32 matches.

Poland went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Poland VS Romania
1.38 Goals Scored 1.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Poland

(Home)
05 Oct
Bosnia & Herzegovina
1 : 0
Poland
02 Oct
Poland
6 : 0
Romania
28 Sept
Sweden
3 : 1
Poland
25 Sept
Poland
0 : 0
Bosnia & Herzegovina
03 Jun
Poland
2 : 2
Nigeria
Page 1 of 7

Romania

(Away)
05 Oct
Romania
0 : 1
Sweden
02 Oct
Poland
6 : 0
Romania
28 Sept
Romania
2 : 4
Bosnia & Herzegovina
25 Sept
Sweden
2 : 1
Romania
06 Jun
Romania
2 : 1
Wales
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Switzerland 4 4 0 0 11:1 12
2 Slovenia 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
3 Scotland 4 1 1 2 3:5 4
4 North Macedonia 4 0 0 4 0:10 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Northern Ireland 4 2 2 0 4:0 8
2 Hungary 4 2 1 1 3:2 7
3 Ukraine 4 1 1 2 2:5 4
4 Georgia 4 0 2 2 0:2 2
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Austria 4 2 2 0 9:5 8
2 Kosovo 4 1 2 1 3:4 5
3 Ireland 4 1 2 1 6:4 5
4 Israel 4 0 2 2 2:7 2
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sweden 4 3 1 0 7:3 10
2 Bosnia & Herzegovina 4 2 2 0 6:3 8
3 Poland 4 1 1 2 7:4 4
4 Romania 4 0 0 4 3:13 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)