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Police vs Bugesera Prediction & H2H Stats

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League 2025/2026
Police Logo

Police

0 - 1
FT
Bugesera Logo

Bugesera

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Bugesera in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bugesera.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Police
15%
Draws
26%
Bugesera
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Police

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Bugesera lately — more wins on the board than Police.
  • 59% — that's where the model lands on Police taking it.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Police Clean Sheet 68%
Bugesera Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Police Bugesera
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 9 12
Draws 13 4
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 0.74 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.61 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Premier League
Police vs Bugesera
0:1
Dec 26, 2025 Premier League
Bugesera vs Police
1:0
Mar 15, 2025 Premier League
Bugesera vs Police
0:1
Dec 13, 2024 Premier League
Police vs Bugesera
2:2
Apr 26, 2024 Premier League
Police vs Bugesera
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Police 59 / 100
Bugesera 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Police Bugesera

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Police Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bugesera's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Police stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Away concern: Bugesera has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Police VS Bugesera
0.75 Goals Scored 0.63
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
38% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Police

(Home)
17 Sept
Mukura Victory Sports
0 : 1
Police
07 Sept
Police
1 : 2
Gicumbi
30 Aug
Kiyovu
1 : 0
Police
27 Aug
Rayon Sport
0 : 1
Police
28 May
Gasogi United
0 : 1
Police
Page 1 of 7

Bugesera

(Away)
15 Sept
Kiyovu
1 : 0
Bugesera
30 May
Rutsiro
0 : 2
Bugesera
26 May
Rayon Sport
2 : 0
Bugesera
16 May
Mukura Victory Sports
2 : 2
Bugesera
09 May
Gicumbi
2 : 1
Bugesera
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Hilal Omdurman 34 23 6 5 74:25 75
2 APR 34 19 11 4 50:28 68
3 Al-Merreikh 34 16 11 7 41:24 59
4 Rayon Sport 34 14 14 6 40:30 56
5 Kiyovu 34 13 14 7 34:21 53
6 Police 34 12 16 6 29:19 52
7 Mukura Victory Sports 34 12 11 11 36:38 47
8 Marines 34 12 9 13 47:43 45
9 Bugesera 34 12 8 14 34:39 44
10 Musanze 34 11 10 13 38:37 43
11 Gorilla 34 10 10 14 31:42 40
12 Gicumbi 34 10 8 16 38:54 38
13 Etincelles 34 7 16 11 32:40 37
14 Kigali FC 34 8 11 15 27:39 35
15 Gasogi United 34 8 11 15 29:44 35
16 Amagaju 34 9 8 17 19:38 35
17 Muhanga 34 8 7 19 25:46 31
18 Rutsiro 34 6 11 17 30:47 29
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)