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Police vs Calvary

Uganda Uganda

Premier League 2025/2026 Kiira Road Police Arena, Kampala
Our Tip

Match Events

73' Event
Obedi B.
89' Event
Kasumba U.

AI Match Summary

Police in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Police.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Police
35%
Draws
32%
Calvary
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Calvary haven't matched Police's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Police's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Police have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.2%
Police Clean Sheet 20%
Calvary Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Police Calvary
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 4
Draws 7 9
Losses 9 17
Goals Scored 1.3 0.47
Goals Conceded 1 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 6, 2026 Premier League
Calvary vs Police
1:0
Jan 21, 2026 Premier League
Police vs Calvary
2:0
Apr 14, 2024 Big League
Calvary vs Police
0:1
Nov 11, 2023 Big League
Police vs Calvary
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Police Compare

Top Goalscorer Obedi B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kasumba U.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Calvary Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Police 42 / 100
Calvary 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Police Calvary

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Police scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Calvary let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Police stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

H2H data points to 1.25 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Police VS Calvary
1.25 Goals Scored 0.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.38
75% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Police

(Home)
16 Sept
Lugazi
0 : 2
Police
10 Sept
Police
0 : 0
UPDF FC
02 Sept
Blacks Power
1 : 0
Police
29 Aug
Police
1 : 0
Mbarara City
23 May
Kitara
2 : 2
Police
Page 1 of 6

Calvary

(Away)
23 May
Calvary
2 : 0
NEC FC
19 May
UPDF FC
0 : 0
Calvary
12 May
Uganda Revenue
1 : 1
Calvary
06 May
Calvary
1 : 0
Police
29 Apr
Entebbe UPPC
2 : 0
Calvary
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vipers 30 19 10 1 55:17 67
2 Kampala City 30 19 5 6 46:22 62
3 Villa 30 18 7 5 47:17 61
4 Kitara 30 16 8 6 43:22 56
5 Entebbe UPPC 30 14 9 7 30:20 51
6 NEC FC 30 13 12 5 31:22 51
7 Police 30 13 8 9 42:35 47
8 Maroons 30 9 11 10 26:27 38
9 BUL 30 9 10 11 30:33 37
10 Express FC 30 9 10 11 28:31 37
11 Uganda Revenue 30 5 16 9 27:30 31
12 Mbarara City 30 6 9 15 26:46 27
13 Lugazi 30 5 10 15 19:36 25
14 UPDF FC 30 5 7 18 24:41 22
15 Calvary 30 4 9 17 14:39 21
16 Buhimba 30 4 3 23 16:66 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League 2026/2027 (Main)