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Police vs Kaedi - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mauritania Mauritania

Ligue 1
Mon, Oct 19, 2026
VS
05:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Police host Kaedi in the Ligue 1. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Police at 1.03 goals for, 1.09 against; Kaedi at 0.79 for, 1.33 against. Head-to-head, Police have won 2 to Kaedi's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on May 20, 2026, ending 0:1. Model xG sits at 0.94 vs 1.00, favoring Police. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

8%
Police
30%
Draws
62%
Kaedi
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Kaedi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

62% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Police come out ahead of Kaedi on wins alone.
  • 62% — that's where the model lands on Kaedi taking it.
  • Regular Ligue 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Police Clean Sheet 20%
Kaedi Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Police Kaedi
Matches Played 33 33
Wins 8 6
Draws 12 11
Losses 13 16
Goals Scored 1.03 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.09 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 20, 2026 Ligue 1
Police vs Kaedi
0:1
Jan 3, 2026 Ligue 1
Kaedi vs Police
0:4
Apr 1, 2023 Ligue 1
Police vs Kaedi
0:1
Nov 19, 2022 Ligue 1
Kaedi vs Police
0:0
Jun 10, 2022 Ligue 1
Police vs Kaedi
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Police 24 / 100
Kaedi 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Police Kaedi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kaedi Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Police scored in 70% of their last 33 games.

Kaedi's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 33 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.

Police went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Police VS Kaedi
0.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
38% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Police

(Home)
12 Oct
Chemal
0 : 0
Police
25 May
Gendrim
2 : 1
Police
20 May
Police
0 : 1
Kaedi
10 May
Nouadhibou
4 : 1
Police
03 May
Police
0 : 1
Chemal
Page 1 of 7

Kaedi

(Away)
10 Oct
Kaedi
0 : 0
Armee
23 May
Nouakchott King's
2 : 0
Kaedi
20 May
Police
0 : 1
Kaedi
09 May
Kaedi
1 : 1
Douane
04 May
Ksar
0 : 1
Kaedi
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pompiers 1 1 0 0 3:0 3
2 Gendrim 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
3 SNIM 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
4 Nouakchott King's 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
5 Tevragh-Zeina 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
6 Nouadhibou 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
7 Armee 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
8 Police 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
9 Kaedi 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
10 Chemal 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
11 Nzeidane 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
12 Nouakchott Academy 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
13 Douane 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
14 Kedia 1 0 0 1 0:3 0
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