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Police vs Villa

Uganda Uganda

Premier League Kiira Road Police Arena, Kampala
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Tezikya L.

AI Match Summary

Police in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Police.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Police
30%
Draws
47%
Villa
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Villa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Villa lately — more wins on the board than Police.
  • Model gives Villa a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Police Clean Sheet 18%
Villa Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Police Villa
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 13 22
Draws 8 6
Losses 9 5
Goals Scored 1.4 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.17 0.48
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 10, 2026 Premier League
Police vs Villa
1:0
Oct 24, 2025 Premier League
Villa vs Police
2:1
May 11, 2025 Premier League
Police vs Villa
1:3
Dec 13, 2024 Premier League
Villa vs Police
1:1
May 2, 2022 Premier League
Police vs Villa
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Police Compare

Top Goalscorer Tezikya L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Villa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Police 20 / 100
Villa 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Police Villa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Villa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Police scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Police went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Villa has conceded goals in 39% of their last 33 outings.

Scoring Trends

Police VS Villa
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Police

(Home)
23 May
Kitara
2 : 2
Police
19 May
Police
1 : 1
Entebbe UPPC
12 May
Police
0 : 0
Vipers
06 May
Calvary
1 : 0
Police
29 Apr
Police
2 : 0
UPDF FC
Page 1 of 6

Villa

(Away)
30 May
Kitara
2 : 1
Villa
23 May
Villa
2 : 1
UPDF FC
20 May
NEC FC
1 : 4
Villa
16 May
Villa
1 : 0
Uganda Revenue
13 May
Mbarara City
1 : 3
Villa
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vipers 30 19 10 1 55:17 67
2 Kampala City 30 19 5 6 46:22 62
3 Villa 30 18 7 5 47:17 61
4 Kitara 30 16 8 6 43:22 56
5 Entebbe UPPC 30 14 9 7 30:20 51
6 NEC FC 30 13 12 5 31:22 51
7 Police 30 13 8 9 42:35 47
8 Maroons 30 9 11 10 26:27 38
9 BUL 30 9 10 11 30:33 37
10 Express FC 30 9 10 11 28:31 37
11 Uganda Revenue 30 5 16 9 27:30 31
12 Mbarara City 30 6 9 15 26:46 27
13 Lugazi 30 5 10 15 19:36 25
14 UPDF FC 30 5 7 18 24:41 22
15 Calvary 30 4 9 17 14:39 21
16 Buhimba 30 4 3 23 16:66 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League 2026/2027 (Main)