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Polonia Sroda Wielkopol vs Tluchowo

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group II 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

40' Event
Figura D.
74' Event
Bartkowiak B.
84' Event
Mikita P.

AI Match Summary

The III Liga - Group II 2025/2026 game between Polonia Sroda Wielkopol and Tluchowo finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Polonia Sroda Wielkopol.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Polonia Sroda Wielkopol
30%
Draws
34%
Tluchowo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Polonia Sroda Wielkopol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Polonia Sroda Wielkopol come out ahead of Tluchowo on wins alone.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Polonia Sroda Wielkopol taking it.
  • Regular III Liga - Group II 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Polonia Sroda Wielkopol Clean Sheet 15%
Tluchowo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Polonia Sroda Wielkopol Tluchowo
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 15 8
Draws 5 5
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 1.63 2
Goals Conceded 1.13 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 8, 2026 III Liga - Group II
Polonia Sroda Wielkopol vs Tluchowo
3:1
Oct 18, 2025 III Liga - Group II
Tluchowo vs Polonia Sroda Wielkopol
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Polonia Sroda Wielkopol Compare

Top Goalscorer Bartkowiak B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mikita P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Tluchowo Compare

Top Goalscorer Figura D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Polonia Sroda Wielkopol 35 / 100
Tluchowo 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Polonia Sroda Wielkopol Tluchowo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Polonia Sroda Wielkopol's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Tluchowo let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.50 goals when they meet.

Polonia Sroda Wielkopol has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Polonia Sroda Wielkopol VS Tluchowo
1.63 Goals Scored 2
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Zawisza34255473:2380
2Luzino34244679:3976
3Polonia Sroda Wielkopol34206867:4366
4Lipno Steszew341561347:5451
5Notec Czarnkow341471349:4649
6Lech Poznan II341471367:5449
7Elana Torun341471349:5549
8Swinoujscie341471348:5249
9Wda Swiecie341461444:6648
10Unia Swarzedz341381347:4147
11Kluczevia Stargard341371454:4346
12Blekitni Stargard341291356:5145
13Victoria Wrzesnia341331841:4642
14Pogon Szczecin II341251775:6641
15Nowe Skalmierzyce341091535:4639
16Cartusia Kartuzy341151838:5138
17Tluchowo34871937:6631
18Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal34362520:8415