Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Pombal vs Serra Branca

Brazil Brazil

Paraibano
Pombal Logo

Pombal

3 - 1
FT
Serra Branca Logo

Serra Branca

Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Italo
20'
Gustavo
27'
Ian Augusto
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Pombal in this Paraibano matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pombal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Pombal
30%
Draws
37%
Serra Branca
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Serra Branca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Serra Branca lately — more wins on the board than Pombal.
  • 37% — that's where the model lands on Serra Branca taking it.
  • Regular Paraibano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Serra Branca have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Pombal Clean Sheet 10%
Serra Branca Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pombal Serra Branca
Matches Played 30 36
Wins 7 16
Draws 6 12
Losses 17 8
Goals Scored 0.97 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.6 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Paraibano
Pombal vs Serra Branca
3:1
Jan 20, 2025 Paraibano
Serra Branca vs Pombal
2:1
Feb 1, 2024 Paraibano
Serra Branca vs Pombal
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pombal Compare

Top Goalscorer Jalison
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Serra Branca Compare

Top Goalscorer Toscano M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pombal 22 / 100
Serra Branca 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pombal Serra Branca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Serra Branca Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:2
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Pombal's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Serra Branca let in goals in 67% of their last 36 matches.

Pombal went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pombal VS Serra Branca
1 Goals Scored 1.38
2.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Pombal

(Home)
22 Feb
Sousa
2 : 0
Pombal
18 Feb
Confianca PB
3 : 2
Pombal
14 Feb
Pombal
1 : 1
Atletico Cajazeirense
04 Feb
EC de Patos
0 : 1
Pombal
01 Feb
Pombal
3 : 1
Serra Branca
Page 1 of 6

Serra Branca

(Away)
12 Jul
Uberlandia
2 : 2
Serra Branca
04 Jul
Serra Branca
0 : 1
Uberlandia
28 Jun
Juazeirense
0 : 1
Serra Branca
21 Jun
Serra Branca
2 : 0
Juazeirense
14 Jun
Sergipe
1 : 1
Serra Branca
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Botafogo PB 9 4 4 1 13:7 16
2 Campinense 9 4 3 2 14:9 15
3 Sousa 9 4 3 2 13:8 15
4 Serra Branca 9 4 2 3 11:10 14
5 Nacional PB 9 3 5 1 14:10 14
6 Treze PB 9 4 0 5 11:11 12
7 EC de Patos 9 3 2 4 6:9 11
8 Atletico Cajazeirense 9 3 1 5 6:11 10
9 Confianca PB 9 2 2 5 12:17 8
10 Pombal 9 2 2 5 10:18 8
Promotion - Paraibano (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paraibano 2 2027 (Main)