Sport Picks
Ponferradina vs AD Merida
Spain
Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 Estadio El Toralín, Ponferrada 
Match Events
4'
4'
Lancho J.
22'
22'
Lopez A.
35'
35'
Pareja L.
AI Match Summary
The Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 game between Ponferradina and AD Merida finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ponferradina.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
37%
30%
33%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ponferradina
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
37%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Ponferradina come out ahead of AD Merida on wins alone.
- Ponferradina are the model's pick here, at 70%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Ponferradina Clean Sheet 68%
AD Merida Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ponferradina | AD Merida |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 15 | 9 |
| Draws | 8 | 8 |
| Losses | 6 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.17 | 0.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.83 | 1.48 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 4, 2026 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Ponferradina vs AD Merida
4:1
Oct 24, 2025 Primera RFEF - Group 1
AD Merida vs Ponferradina
0:0
Jun 1, 2008 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Ponferradina vs AD Merida
1:1
May 25, 2008 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
AD Merida vs Ponferradina
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ponferradina Compare
Top Goalscorer Ferrer P.
2 Goals Assists Leader Undabarrena E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
AD Merida Compare
Top Goalscorer Hallsson S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ponferradina 77 / 100
AD Merida 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ponferradina AD Merida
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Ponferradina Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ponferradina found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).
Defensive concern: AD Merida conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.
H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.
Ponferradina went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Ponferradina VS AD Merida
0.88 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Ponferradina
(Home) 29 Aug
UD Ourense
0 : 1 Ponferradina
19 Aug
Ponferradina
2 : 2 Real Madrid B
08 Aug
Marino De Luanco
0 : 3 Ponferradina
05 Aug
Ponferradina
1 : 2 Unionistas de Salamanca
01 Aug
Ponferradina
1 : 1 Real Aviles
Page 1 of 6
19 Aug
Ponferradina
2 : 2 Real Madrid B
05 Aug
Ponferradina
1 : 2 Unionistas de Salamanca
01 Aug
Ponferradina
1 : 1 Real Aviles
13 Jun
Ponferradina
0 : 0 Celta Vigo B
30 May
Ponferradina
0 : 0 Atl. Madrid B
Page 1 of 3
AD Merida
(Away) 29 Aug
AD Merida
1 : 0 Deportivo Fabril
22 Aug
AD Merida
0 : 0 Recreativo Huelva
14 Aug
AD Merida
2 : 1 Alcorcon
07 Aug
Leganes
3 : 0 AD Merida
01 Aug
AD Merida
2 : 3 Betis B
Page 1 of 6
07 Aug
Leganes
3 : 0 AD Merida
25 Jul
Benfica B
4 : 0 AD Merida
23 May
Osasuna B
1 : 2 AD Merida
09 May
Barakaldo
2 : 0 AD Merida
24 Apr
Arenas Getxo
2 : 0 AD Merida
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tenerife | 38 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 62:24 | 76 |
| 2 | Celta Vigo B | 38 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 61:48 | 65 |
| 3 | Zamora | 38 | 17 | 10 | 11 | 53:42 | 61 |
| 4 | Ponferradina | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 43:33 | 60 |
| 5 | Real Madrid B | 38 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 61:52 | 58 |
| 6 | Pontevedra | 38 | 14 | 16 | 8 | 49:31 | 58 |
| 7 | Barakaldo | 38 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 51:38 | 58 |
| 8 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 53:49 | 56 |
| 9 | Lugo | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 36:40 | 53 |
| 10 | AD Merida | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 47:53 | 52 |
| 11 | Arenas Getxo | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 46:55 | 52 |
| 12 | Racing Club Ferrol | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 41:47 | 49 |
| 13 | Ath Bilbao B | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 38:46 | 49 |
| 14 | Real Aviles | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 55:67 | 44 |
| 15 | Cacereno | 38 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 42:49 | 44 |
| 16 | CF Talavera | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 38:47 | 43 |
| 17 | Ourense CF | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 44:47 | 43 |
| 18 | Guadalajara | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 44:58 | 41 |
| 19 | Osasuna B | 38 | 10 | 10 | 18 | 28:42 | 40 |
| 20 | Arenteiro | 38 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 29:53 | 28 |
Promotion - LaLiga2 (Main)
Promotion - Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
