Sport Picks
Ponferradina vs AD Merida Prediction & H2H Stats
Spain
Primera RFEF - Group 1 Estadio El Toralín, Ponferrada 
Match Events
10'
10'
Areso J.
11'
11'
Jelbat A.
39'
39'
Undabarrena E.
AI Match Summary
The Primera RFEF - Group 1 game between Ponferradina and AD Merida finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ponferradina.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
58%
20%
22%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ponferradina
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
58%
/ Medium Confidence
- Ponferradina carry the better recent record into this one.
- Ponferradina are the model's pick here, at 50%.
- Regular Primera RFEF - Group 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Ponferradina Clean Sheet 68%
AD Merida Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ponferradina | AD Merida |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 8 |
| Draws | 9 | 7 |
| Losses | 7 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.07 | 1.03 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.93 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 19, 2026 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Ponferradina vs AD Merida
1:0
Apr 4, 2026 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Ponferradina vs AD Merida
4:1
Oct 24, 2025 Primera RFEF - Group 1
AD Merida vs Ponferradina
0:0
Jun 1, 2008 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Ponferradina vs AD Merida
1:1
May 25, 2008 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
AD Merida vs Ponferradina
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ponferradina Compare
Top Goalscorer Jelbat A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
AD Merida Compare
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ponferradina 59 / 100
AD Merida 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ponferradina AD Merida
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Ponferradina Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ponferradina scored in 72% of their last 29 games.
AD Merida has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.
Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.
Solid form: Ponferradina remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Ponferradina VS AD Merida
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Ponferradina
(Home) 27 Sept
Pontevedra
1 : 1 Ponferradina
19 Sept
Ponferradina
1 : 0 AD Merida
13 Sept
Deportivo Fabril
2 : 1 Ponferradina
04 Sept
Ponferradina
0 : 0 Lugo
29 Aug
UD Ourense
0 : 1 Ponferradina
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Ponferradina
1 : 0 AD Merida
04 Sept
Ponferradina
0 : 0 Lugo
19 Aug
Ponferradina
2 : 2 Real Madrid B
05 Aug
Ponferradina
1 : 2 Unionistas de Salamanca
01 Aug
Ponferradina
1 : 1 Real Aviles
Page 1 of 3
AD Merida
(Away) 27 Sept
AD Merida
3 : 5 UD Logrones
19 Sept
Ponferradina
1 : 0 AD Merida
12 Sept
AD Merida
3 : 4 Mirandes
06 Sept
Leonesa
1 : 0 AD Merida
29 Aug
AD Merida
1 : 0 Deportivo Fabril
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Ponferradina
1 : 0 AD Merida
06 Sept
Leonesa
1 : 0 AD Merida
07 Aug
Leganes
3 : 0 AD Merida
25 Jul
Benfica B
4 : 0 AD Merida
23 May
Osasuna B
1 : 2 AD Merida
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD Logrones | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13:6 | 13 |
| 2 | Lugo | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | 13 |
| 3 | Ath Bilbao B | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11:5 | 11 |
| 4 | Cacereno | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6:1 | 11 |
| 5 | Mirandes | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9:6 | 10 |
| 6 | Pontevedra | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:6 | 8 |
| 7 | Deportivo Fabril | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7:5 | 8 |
| 8 | Ponferradina | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4:3 | 8 |
| 9 | Leonesa | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4:3 | 8 |
| 10 | Real Union | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12:10 | 7 |
| 11 | Zamora | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6:6 | 7 |
| 12 | Racing Club Ferrol | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 7 |
| 13 | Real Aviles | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8:8 | 5 |
| 14 | CD Coria | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8:9 | 5 |
| 15 | Barakaldo | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 16 | CD Extremadura | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 17 | AD Merida | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7:11 | 3 |
| 18 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7:12 | 3 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1:9 | 1 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3:13 | 1 |
Promotion - LaLiga2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Primera RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
