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Pontardawe vs Caerleon

Wales Wales

Division 1 2012/2013
Pontardawe Logo

Pontardawe

2 - 1
FT
Caerleon Logo

Caerleon

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Division 1 2012/2013 game between Pontardawe and Caerleon finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pontardawe.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Pontardawe
15%
Draws
42%
Caerleon
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Pontardawe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Pontardawe come out ahead of Caerleon on wins alone.
  • Model gives Pontardawe a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Pontardawe Clean Sheet 14%
Caerleon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pontardawe Caerleon
Matches Played 39 32
Wins 12 4
Draws 9 3
Losses 18 25
Goals Scored 1.56 0.84
Goals Conceded 2.13 2.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 2, 2013 Division 1
Pontardawe vs Caerleon
2:1
Oct 27, 2012 Division 1
Caerleon vs Pontardawe
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pontardawe 41 / 100
Caerleon 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pontardawe Caerleon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Caerleon conceded in 97% of 32 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Pontardawe found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (39 games).

Difficult form: Caerleon registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pontardawe VS -
1.63 Goals Scored 0
2.25 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
63% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Pontardawe

(Home)
28 Aug
Aberystwyth
1 : 0
Pontardawe
21 Aug
Afan Lido
1 : 0
Pontardawe
15 Aug
Pontardawe
0 : 4
Newport City
07 Aug
Pontypridd United
3 : 2
Pontardawe
01 Aug
Pontardawe
3 : 0
Caerphilly
Page 1 of 8

Caerleon

(Away)
19 Oct
Pure Swansea
4 : 1
Caerleon
31 Oct
Afan Lido
2 : 0
Caerleon
03 Oct
Caerleon
2 : 1
Treharris Athletic
06 May
Caerleon
0 : 1
Taffs Well
04 May
Caerleon
1 : 2
Tata Steel
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 West End 28 18 4 6 64:29 58
2 Cambrian United 28 17 5 6 56:26 56
3 Taffs Well 28 14 7 7 57:39 49
4 Haverfordwest 28 13 8 7 63:35 47
5 Aberdare Town 28 13 8 7 45:35 47
6 AFC Porth 28 13 7 8 39:34 46
7 Monmouth 28 13 6 9 54:43 42
8 Bryntirion Athletic 28 10 9 9 38:40 39
9 Ton Pentre 28 9 9 10 39:39 36
10 Pontardawe 28 10 5 13 34:39 35
11 Goytre Utd 28 10 4 14 33:51 34
12 Cwmbran Celtic 28 9 5 14 41:52 32
13 Bridgend Town 28 8 7 13 28:51 31
14 Tata Steel 28 5 6 17 27:62 21
15 Caerleon 28 1 4 23 19:62 7
16 Barry Town 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Premier 2013/2014 (Main)