Sport Picks
Pontypridd United vs Baglan Dragons Prediction & H2H Stats
Wales
Cymru South 2025/2026 USW Sports Park, Pontypridd 
Match Events
53'
53'
Wynne E.
83'
83'
Angel L.
AI Match Summary
Pontypridd United in this Cymru South 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pontypridd United.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
53%
15%
32%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Pontypridd United
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
53%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Pontypridd United lately — more wins on the board than Baglan Dragons.
- Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
- Regular Cymru South 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Pontypridd United Clean Sheet 68%
Baglan Dragons Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Pontypridd United | Baglan Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 8 |
| Draws | 6 | 5 |
| Losses | 9 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.82 | 0.83 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.57 | 1.76 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 21, 2026 Cymru South
Pontypridd United vs Baglan Dragons
2:0
Jul 27, 2025 Cymru South
Baglan Dragons vs Pontypridd United
3:0
Jan 17, 2025 Cymru South
Pontypridd United vs Baglan Dragons
1:0
Oct 26, 2024 Cymru South
Baglan Dragons vs Pontypridd United
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Pontypridd United Compare
Top Goalscorer Wynne E.
1 Goals Assists Leader Angel L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Baglan Dragons Compare
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Pontypridd United 41 / 100
Baglan Dragons 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Pontypridd United Baglan Dragons
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Pontypridd United Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Pontypridd United scored in 68% of their last 28 outings.
Defensive concern: Baglan Dragons conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.
These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.
Pontypridd United has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Pontypridd United VS Baglan Dragons
2.25 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Pontypridd United
(Home) 25 Sept
Caerphilly
1 : 2 Pontypridd United
11 Sept
Pontypridd United
0 : 1 Afan Lido
28 Aug
Pure Swansea
4 : 4 Pontypridd United
21 Aug
Pontypridd United
2 : 1 Trethomas Bluebirds
15 Aug
Cardiff Draconians
1 : 4 Pontypridd United
Page 1 of 6
11 Sept
Pontypridd United
0 : 1 Afan Lido
21 Aug
Pontypridd United
2 : 1 Trethomas Bluebirds
07 Aug
Pontypridd United
3 : 2 Pontardawe
18 Apr
Pontypridd United
0 : 0 Caerau Ely
27 Mar
Pontypridd United
1 : 3 Trefelin
Page 1 of 3
Baglan Dragons
(Away) 25 Sept
Baglan Dragons
1 : 2 Carmarthen Town
12 Sept
Cardiff Draconians
2 : 1 Baglan Dragons
04 Sept
Baglan Dragons
2 : 1 Afan Lido
31 Aug
Baglan Dragons
0 : 1 Caerphilly
28 Aug
Baglan Dragons
3 : 1 Caerau Ely
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Cardiff Draconians
2 : 1 Baglan Dragons
21 Aug
Newport City
0 : 1 Baglan Dragons
15 Aug
Llantwit Major
0 : 1 Baglan Dragons
31 Jul
Trethomas Bluebirds
0 : 0 Baglan Dragons
03 Apr
Cambrian United
2 : 0 Baglan Dragons
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trefelin | 30 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 83:17 | 78 |
| 2 | Cambrian United | 30 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 75:20 | 76 |
| 3 | Ammanford Town | 30 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 49:26 | 60 |
| 4 | Caerau Ely | 30 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 66:34 | 57 |
| 5 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 45:38 | 45 |
| 6 | Aberystwyth | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 35:38 | 44 |
| 7 | Cardiff Draconians | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 50:48 | 40 |
| 8 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 44:47 | 37 |
| 9 | Treowen | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 51:63 | 37 |
| 10 | Newport City | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 36:48 | 37 |
| 11 | Pontypridd United | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 46:51 | 34 |
| 12 | Afan Lido | 30 | 9 | 3 | 18 | 32:57 | 30 |
| 13 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 45:62 | 29 |
| 14 | Baglan Dragons | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 26:52 | 25 |
| 15 | Ynyshir Albions | 30 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 27:56 | 23 |
| 16 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 25:78 | 10 |
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Main)
