Sport Picks
Pontypridd United vs Trefelin Prediction & H2H Stats
Wales
Cymru South 2025/2026 USW Sports Park, Pontypridd 
Match Events
26'
26'
Georgievsky K.
29'
29'
Bowen L.
39'
39'
Phipps E.
AI Match Summary
Trefelin in this Cymru South 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Trefelin.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
58%
30%
12%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Pontypridd United
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
58%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Trefelin lately — more wins on the board than Pontypridd United.
- Model gives Pontypridd United a 58% chance of winning this.
- Regular Cymru South 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Pontypridd United Clean Sheet 20%
Trefelin Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Pontypridd United | Trefelin |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 33 |
| Wins | 14 | 18 |
| Draws | 6 | 4 |
| Losses | 8 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.93 | 2.18 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.54 | 1.64 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.06 | 0.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 27, 2026 Cymru South
Pontypridd United vs Trefelin
1:3
Nov 1, 2025 Cymru South
Trefelin vs Pontypridd United
2:0
Nov 30, 2024 Cymru South
Pontypridd United vs Trefelin
4:2
Aug 6, 2024 Cymru South
Trefelin vs Pontypridd United
2:3
Apr 8, 2022 Cymru South
Pontypridd United vs Trefelin
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Pontypridd United Compare
Top Goalscorer Phipps E.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03
Trefelin Compare
Top Goalscorer Georgievsky K.
1 Goals Assists Leader Bowen L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Pontypridd United 85 / 100
Trefelin 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Pontypridd United Trefelin
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Pontypridd United Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.
Pontypridd United scored in 71% of their last 28 games.
Trefelin let in goals in 67% of their last 33 matches.
Pontypridd United went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Pontypridd United VS Trefelin
1.5 Goals Scored 0.38
1 Goals Conceded 2.63
50% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Pontypridd United
(Home) 25 Sept
Caerphilly
1 : 2 Pontypridd United
11 Sept
Pontypridd United
0 : 1 Afan Lido
28 Aug
Pure Swansea
4 : 4 Pontypridd United
21 Aug
Pontypridd United
2 : 1 Trethomas Bluebirds
15 Aug
Cardiff Draconians
1 : 4 Pontypridd United
Page 1 of 6
11 Sept
Pontypridd United
0 : 1 Afan Lido
21 Aug
Pontypridd United
2 : 1 Trethomas Bluebirds
07 Aug
Pontypridd United
3 : 2 Pontardawe
18 Apr
Pontypridd United
0 : 0 Caerau Ely
27 Mar
Pontypridd United
1 : 3 Trefelin
Page 1 of 3
Trefelin
(Away) 26 Sept
Trefelin
1 : 3 TNS
18 Sept
Briton Ferry
1 : 1 Trefelin
15 Sept
Trefelin
0 : 4 Cambrian United
11 Sept
Trefelin
0 : 1 Penybont
04 Sept
Holywell Town FC
1 : 1 Trefelin
Page 1 of 7
18 Sept
Briton Ferry
1 : 1 Trefelin
04 Sept
Holywell Town FC
1 : 1 Trefelin
31 Aug
Haverfordwest
2 : 1 Trefelin
14 Aug
Connahs Q.
6 : 0 Trefelin
31 Jul
Colwyn Bay
2 : 0 Trefelin
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trefelin | 30 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 83:17 | 78 |
| 2 | Cambrian United | 30 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 75:20 | 76 |
| 3 | Ammanford Town | 30 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 49:26 | 60 |
| 4 | Caerau Ely | 30 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 66:34 | 57 |
| 5 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 45:38 | 45 |
| 6 | Aberystwyth | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 35:38 | 44 |
| 7 | Cardiff Draconians | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 50:48 | 40 |
| 8 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 44:47 | 37 |
| 9 | Treowen | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 51:63 | 37 |
| 10 | Newport City | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 36:48 | 37 |
| 11 | Pontypridd United | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 46:51 | 34 |
| 12 | Afan Lido | 30 | 9 | 3 | 18 | 32:57 | 30 |
| 13 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 45:62 | 29 |
| 14 | Baglan Dragons | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 26:52 | 25 |
| 15 | Ynyshir Albions | 30 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 27:56 | 23 |
| 16 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 25:78 | 10 |
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Main)
