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Porongos vs Maldonado - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay Uruguay

Copa Uruguay
Wed, Oct 28, 2026
VS
11:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 3-2. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Porongos have averaged 1 scored and 3 conceded recently, against Maldonado's 1.83 scored and 0.93 conceded. Past meetings favor Porongos slightly — 1-0-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 6, 2025, ending 3:2. xG projections (0.97 - 0.99) back Maldonado to edge this. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Porongos
15%
Draws
57%
Maldonado
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Maldonado

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Maldonado lately — more wins on the board than Porongos.
  • Model gives Maldonado a 57% chance of winning this.
  • Maldonado arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Porongos, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Porongos Clean Sheet 20%
Maldonado Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Porongos Maldonado
Matches Played 3 29
Wins 1 15
Draws 0 7
Losses 2 7
Goals Scored 1 1.83
Goals Conceded 3 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 6, 2025 Copa Uruguay
Porongos vs Maldonado
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Porongos 10 / 100
Maldonado 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Porongos Maldonado

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maldonado Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Maldonado conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Porongos's goal record stands at 33% scoring rate across 3 recent games.

Recent resilience: Porongos stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Porongos VS Maldonado
0 Goals Scored 0.88
0 Goals Conceded 0.75
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Porongos

(Home)
10 Sept
Albion
4 : 0
Porongos
06 Aug
Porongos
3 : 2
Maldonado
03 Aug
Porongos
0 : 3
Boquita

Maldonado

(Away)
19 Oct
Club Nacional
3 : 2
Maldonado
15 Oct
Maldonado
4 : 1
Albion
09 Oct
Maldonado
1 : 1
Liverpool M.
03 Oct
Maldonado
3 : 0
Central Esp.
27 Sept
Montevideo City
0 : 2
Maldonado
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
San Carlos -
TBD -
Boston River 1
River Plate Montevideo 0
Libertad San Carlos -
TBD -
Penarol -
Montevideo City -
Porongos -
TBD -
Maldonado 4
Albion 1
Ferro Carril -
TBD -
Club Nacional 3
Rentistas 0
Wanderers Durazno -
TBD -
Central Esp. 0
Danubio 6
Lito -
TBD -
Cerrito 2
Wanderers 3
Gladiador -
TBD -
Liverpool M. 1
Cerro Largo 0
Nacional Florida -
TBD -
Plaza Colonia 0
Juventud 1
1/8-finals
San Carlos -
Boston River -
Libertad San Carlos -
TBD -
Porongos -
Maldonado -
Ferro Carril -
Club Nacional -
Wanderers Durazno -
Danubio -
Lito -
Wanderers -
Gladiador -
Liverpool M. -
Nacional Florida -
Juventud -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -