Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Port Vale vs Exeter

England England

League Two Vale Park, Stoke on Trent
Our Tip

Match Events

57'
Doyle-Hayes J.
63'
Sub
Edwards G. In: Taylor J.
Out: Edwards G.
70' Event
Byers G.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The League Two game between Port Vale and Exeter finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Port Vale.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Port Vale
20%
Draws
50%
Exeter
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Exeter

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Port Vale come out ahead of Exeter on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular League Two form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Port Vale Clean Sheet 22%
Exeter Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Port Vale Exeter
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 9 4
Draws 5 9
Losses 14 15
Goals Scored 0.86 0.96
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 League Two
Port Vale vs Exeter
1:0
Jan 24, 2026 League One
Port Vale vs Exeter
1:3
Sep 13, 2025 League One
Exeter vs Port Vale
0:2
Apr 13, 2024 League One
Port Vale vs Exeter
2:4
Dec 9, 2023 League One
Exeter vs Port Vale
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Port Vale 37 / 100
Exeter 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Port Vale Exeter

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Exeter Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Exeter has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Port Vale's goal record stands at 50% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Port Vale has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Port Vale VS Exeter
0.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Port Vale

(Home)
22 Sept
Chesterfield
2 : 1
Port Vale
19 Sept
Walsall
2 : 0
Port Vale
12 Sept
Port Vale
1 : 0
Exeter
05 Sept
Salford
1 : 0
Port Vale
01 Sept
Swindon
3 : 1
Port Vale
Page 1 of 6

Exeter

(Away)
22 Sept
Cheltenham
3 : 2
Exeter
19 Sept
Exeter
0 : 0
Tranmere
12 Sept
Port Vale
1 : 0
Exeter
08 Sept
Exeter
2 : 0
Tottenham U21
05 Sept
Exeter
0 : 0
Walsall
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barnet 7 4 3 0 17:10 15
2 Walsall 7 3 4 0 10:4 13
3 Grimsby 7 3 4 0 11:6 13
4 Gillingham 7 3 3 1 11:6 12
5 Cheltenham 7 3 3 1 14:11 12
6 Bristol Rovers 7 4 0 3 12:11 12
7 York City 7 3 2 2 13:10 11
8 Chesterfield 7 3 2 2 10:8 11
9 Crewe 7 2 5 0 7:5 11
10 Tranmere 7 2 4 1 9:7 10
11 Fleetwood Town 7 2 4 1 8:7 10
12 Salford 7 3 1 3 8:9 10
13 Swindon 7 3 1 3 8:11 10
14 Rotherham 7 2 3 2 10:10 9
15 Colchester 7 2 3 2 8:10 9
16 Oldham 7 2 1 4 8:9 7
17 Rochdale 7 2 1 4 7:10 7
18 Shrewsbury 7 2 1 4 5:11 7
19 Newport 7 1 3 3 10:11 6
20 Exeter 7 1 3 3 4:5 6
21 Accrington 7 1 3 3 10:13 6
22 Northampton 7 1 3 3 3:6 6
23 Port Vale 7 1 2 4 3:9 5
24 Crawley Town 7 1 1 5 6:13 4
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League 2027/2028 (Main)