Sport Picks

England

EFL Trophy 2025/2026 Vale Park, Stoke on Trent

Port Vale

Tue, Nov 11, 2025

3 - 4

07:00 PM

Fleetwood Town

Our Tip

Match Events

32'

Helm M.

Assist: Neal H.

46'

Sub

McCann L. In: Ennis E.

Out: McCann L.

46'

Sub

John K. In: Debrah J.

Out: John K.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Fleetwood Town in this EFL Trophy 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-4. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%

Port Vale

28%

Draws

22%

Fleetwood Town

Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Port Vale

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Form's been kind to Port Vale lately — more wins on the board than Fleetwood Town.
Win probability leans Port Vale's way, sitting at 50%.
Port Vale have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Port Vale, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 25%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%

Port Vale Clean Sheet 18%

Fleetwood Town Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Port Vale	Fleetwood Town
Matches Played	30	27
Wins	12	11
Draws	6	9
Losses	12	7
Goals Scored	1.5	1.75
Goals Conceded	0.88	0.63
Expected Goals (xG)	1.50	1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 9, 2026 FA Cup

Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town

1:0

Nov 11, 2025 EFL Trophy

Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town

3:4

Mar 8, 2025 League Two

Fleetwood Town vs Port Vale

1:1

Oct 19, 2024 League Two

Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town

3:1

Feb 27, 2024 League One

Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town

2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Port Vale Compare

Top Goalscorer Shipley J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Brown D.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.15

Avg xA / game 0.75

Fleetwood Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Medley Z.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Helm M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.59

Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Port Vale 49 / 100

Fleetwood Town 23 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Port Vale Fleetwood Town

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick POR Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Port Vale scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Fleetwood Town let in goals in 67% of their last 27 matches.

Port Vale went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Port Vale VS Fleetwood Town

1.5 Goals Scored 1.75

0.88 Goals Conceded 0.63

63% Over 1.5 75%

50% Over 2.5 38%

25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Port Vale

(Home)

25 Jul

Port Vale

1 : 0

Murcia

18 Jul

Wigan

1 : 3

Port Vale

14 Jul

Port Vale

5 : 0

Tamworth

02 May

Port Vale

0 : 2

Lincoln City

28 Apr

Stockport County

1 : 2

Port Vale

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Fleetwood Town

(Away)

21 Jul

Fleetwood Town

2 : 1

Huddersfield

18 Jul

Southport

0 : 1

Fleetwood Town

14 Jul

Fleetwood Town

2 : 0

Chester

11 Jul

Bamber Bridge

0 : 5

Fleetwood Town

02 May

Fleetwood Town

1 : 1

Milton Keynes Dons

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