Sport Picks

USA

NWSL Women Providence Park, Portland, OR

Portland Thorns FC W

2 - 0

Bay FC W

Our Tip

Match Events

30'

Vignola M.

46'

Sub

Bailey D. In: Conti C.

Out: Bailey D.

46'

Sub

Girelli C. In: Lema K.

Out: Girelli C.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The NWSL Women game between Portland Thorns FC W and Bay FC W finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Portland Thorns FC W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Portland Thorns FC W

40%

Draws

29%

Bay FC W

Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence

Portland Thorns FC W carry the better recent record into this one.
40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
Regular NWSL Women form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 70%

Over 4.5 Goals 32%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%

Portland Thorns FC W Clean Sheet 18%

Bay FC W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Portland Thorns FC W	Bay FC W
Matches Played	32	29
Wins	15	6
Draws	7	8
Losses	10	15
Goals Scored	1.63	0.88
Goals Conceded	1.75	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 21, 2026 NWSL Women

Portland Thorns FC W vs Bay FC W

2:0

Oct 5, 2025 NWSL Women

Portland Thorns FC W vs Bay FC W

2:1

Jun 7, 2025 NWSL Women

Bay FC W vs Portland Thorns FC W

1:0

Aug 31, 2024 NWSL Women

Portland Thorns FC W vs Bay FC W

1:3

May 2, 2024 NWSL Women

Bay FC W vs Portland Thorns FC W

2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Portland Thorns FC W Compare

Top Goalscorer Vignola M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Mckenzie M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

Bay FC W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Portland Thorns FC W 32 / 100

Bay FC W 28 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Portland Thorns FC W Bay FC W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Portland Thorns FC W's goal record stands at 84% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Bay FC W let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Portland Thorns FC W remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Portland Thorns FC W VS Bay FC W

1.63 Goals Scored 0.88

1.75 Goals Conceded 1.13

88% Over 1.5 63%

63% Over 2.5 25%

63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Portland Thorns FC W

(Home)

25 Jul

Portland Thorns FC W

2 : 2

Gotham FC W

18 Jul

Denver Summit W

2 : 1

Portland Thorns FC W

12 Jul

Seattle Reign W

2 : 0

Portland Thorns FC W

05 Jul

Portland Thorns FC W

4 : 0

Racing Louisville W

28 Jun

Portland Thorns FC W

3 : 4

San Diego Wave W

Page 1 of 7

Bay FC W

(Away)

25 Jul

Houston Dash W

1 : 0

Bay FC W

18 Jul

Bay FC W

3 : 0

North Carolina Courage W

11 Jul

Racing Louisville W

0 : 2

Bay FC W

05 Jul

Boston Legacy W

2 : 2

Bay FC W

29 May

Orlando Pride W

3 : 1

Bay FC W

Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Scroll horizontally →

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gotham FC W	16	9	4	3	21:12	31
2	Washington Spirit W	15	9	3	3	24:12	30
3	San Diego Wave W	16	9	2	5	23:17	29
4	Portland Thorns FC W	17	8	4	5	27:20	28
5	Utah Royals W	15	8	3	4	22:16	27
6	Kansas City Current W	16	8	1	7	23:23	25
7	Orlando Pride W	17	7	2	8	22:21	23
8	Angel City W	14	7	1	6	22:14	22
9	North Carolina Courage W	14	6	3	5	20:19	21
10	Denver Summit W	14	5	4	5	21:19	19
11	Houston Dash W	16	5	4	7	19:24	19
12	Boston Legacy W	17	5	4	8	18:23	19
13	Bay FC W	15	5	3	7	16:20	18
14	Seattle Reign W	14	5	2	7	15:19	17
15	Chicago Stars W	16	4	0	12	8:31	12
16	Racing Louisville W	14	2	2	10	16:27	8

Promotion - NWSL Women (Play Offs)