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Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

MLS Providence Park, Portland, OR
Portland Timbers Logo

Portland Timbers

5 - 4
FT
Minnesota United Logo

Minnesota United

Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Janssen V.
(Penalty)
20' Event
Callender D.
Own Goal
23'
Boxall M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The MLS game between Portland Timbers and Minnesota United finished 5-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Portland Timbers.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Portland Timbers
30%
Draws
23%
Minnesota United
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Portland Timbers

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Minnesota United haven't matched Portland Timbers's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular MLS form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 82%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 82%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43.2%
Portland Timbers Clean Sheet 68%
Minnesota United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Portland Timbers Minnesota United
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 10 7
Draws 6 7
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 2 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.86 1.74
Expected Goals (xG) 2.31 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 MLS
Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United
5:4
Apr 19, 2026 MLS
Minnesota United vs Portland Timbers
2:0
Aug 31, 2025 MLS
Minnesota United vs Portland Timbers
1:1
Jul 20, 2025 MLS
Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United
1:1
Jun 30, 2024 MLS
Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Portland Timbers Compare

Top Goalscorer Janssen V.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Velde K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.78
Avg xA / game 1.16

Minnesota United Compare

Top Goalscorer Caldeira M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Markanich A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Portland Timbers 41 / 100
Minnesota United 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Portland Timbers Minnesota United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Portland Timbers Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 8:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Portland Timbers scored in 86% of their last 28 games.

Minnesota United let in goals in 85% of their last 27 matches.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Minnesota United registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Portland Timbers VS Minnesota United
1.75 Goals Scored 2.5
2 Goals Conceded 2.88
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 88%

Recent Form & Match History

Portland Timbers

(Home)
11 Oct
Sporting Kansas City
3 : 3
Portland Timbers
27 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes
3 : 1
Portland Timbers
20 Sept
Portland Timbers
0 : 1
Atlanta United
13 Sept
FC Dallas
2 : 1
Portland Timbers
10 Sept
Portland Timbers
2 : 2
St. Louis City
Page 1 of 6

Minnesota United

(Away)
11 Oct
Minnesota United
2 : 2
Houston Dynamo
27 Sept
Seattle Sounders
3 : 1
Minnesota United
20 Sept
Minnesota United
2 : 3
Los Angeles Galaxy
13 Sept
St. Louis City
4 : 2
Minnesota United
10 Sept
Minnesota United
1 : 2
FC Dallas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 28 15 6 7 61:30 51
2 St. Louis City 27 13 8 6 48:36 47
3 FC Dallas 28 13 8 7 52:45 47
4 San Jose Earthquakes 28 13 7 8 50:40 46
5 Houston Dynamo 28 13 6 9 36:34 45
6 Los Angeles FC 29 11 9 9 44:31 42
7 Seattle Sounders 28 11 8 9 38:35 41
8 Colorado Rapids 28 11 4 13 39:39 37
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 37:44 36
10 Portland Timbers 28 9 6 13 51:54 33
11 Real Salt Lake 28 9 5 14 41:46 32
12 San Diego FC 28 8 8 12 48:51 32
13 Austin FC 28 7 10 11 36:51 31
14 Minnesota United 28 7 9 12 42:51 30
15 Sporting Kansas City 28 6 4 18 35:68 22
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 28 19 6 3 59:22 63
2 Inter Miami 28 13 10 5 68:50 49
3 Chicago Fire 28 14 6 8 51:40 48
4 New England Revolution 28 14 4 10 45:39 46
5 Charlotte FC 28 13 7 8 50:40 46
6 Philadelphia Union 28 12 6 10 56:45 42
7 Orlando City 28 11 4 13 51:66 37
8 New York Red Bulls 28 10 6 12 38:52 36
9 FC Cincinnati 27 9 9 9 58:65 36
10 New York City 28 8 9 11 42:38 33
11 Toronto FC 28 7 11 10 41:52 32
12 DC United 27 6 12 9 34:46 30
13 Columbus Crew 28 8 5 15 41:46 29
14 Atlanta United 28 7 6 15 33:48 27
15 CF Montreal 28 6 6 16 35:56 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)