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Portmany vs Serverense

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2021/2022
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2021/2022 encounter between Portmany and Serverense promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Portmany averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded in recent matches. Serverense shows a form average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 1 wins for Portmany, 1 wins for Serverense, and 0 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 24.04.22 ended in a 1:2 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 0.97 for Portmany and 1.13 for Serverense, suggesting the primary value lies in the Portmany double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Portmany
19%
Draws
39%
Serverense
Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Portmany

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Portmany picked up more points recently compared to Serverense.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.97 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
Portmany Clean Sheet 21%
Serverense Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Portmany Serverense
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 8 7
Draws 6 6
Losses 18 17
Goals Scored 0.81 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.7

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

24.04.22 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Portmany vs Serverense
1:2
22.12.21 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Serverense vs Portmany
0:2

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Portmany

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Serverense

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Portmany 42 / 100
Serverense 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Portmany Serverense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Portmany or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23.5%
2.94
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.7%
2.63
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Portmany 46%
Serverense 31%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Portmany 40%
Serverense 41%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Portmany 42%
Serverense 39%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Portmany 44%
Serverense 37%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Portmany 38%
Serverense 43%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Portmany 48%
Serverense 45%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Portmany attacking → ← attacking Serverense

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Portmany have found the net in 53% of their last 32 matches.

Serverense have conceded at least one goal in 90% of their last 30 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.50 goals per match.

Portmany remained undefeated in 3 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Serverense suffered defeat in 2 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

30 Points in last 5 27
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Mallorca B403253105:27101
2Manacor402641074:4282
3UD Poblense40248889:2480
4Platges de Calvia402211756:2777
5Llosetense40229962:3675
6Santanyi402361166:4675
7Constancia402091154:3869
8PE Sant Jordi402081257:4668
9Portmany4017111255:5162
10Collerense401771645:4958
11Soller401691546:5257
12Binissalem4013121540:4451
13Mercadal4011121754:5145
14Inter Ibiza401272151:6243
15Rotlet Molinar401192035:5342
16El Espinar Sant Rafel4010102048:6440
17Campos4010102038:6440
18Felanitx409112043:6538
19Serverense40872535:7431
20Murense40582731:7623
21Son Veri40433328:12115