Sport Picks

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Portugal U23 W vs Italy U23 W

World World

Friendly International Women 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Arcangeli N.
35' Event
Pintassilgo L.
(Penalty)
47' Event
Soffia A.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International Women 2024 game between Portugal U23 W and Italy U23 W finished 3-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Portugal U23 W
20%
Draws
38%
Italy U23 W
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Portugal U23 W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Portugal U23 W haven't matched Italy U23 W's recent run of results.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Portugal U23 W taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Portugal U23 W Clean Sheet 17%
Italy U23 W Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Portugal U23 W Italy U23 W
Matches Played 34 29
Wins 4 11
Draws 7 7
Losses 23 11
Goals Scored 0.75 1
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Friendly International Women
Portugal U23 W vs Italy U23 W
1:2
Mar 2, 2026 Friendly International Women
Portugal U23 W vs Italy U23 W
1:3
Feb 26, 2024 Friendly International Women
Portugal U23 W vs Italy U23 W
3:3
Nov 10, 2022 Friendly International Women
Italy U23 W vs Portugal U23 W
1:0
Nov 29, 2021 Friendly International Women
Portugal U23 W vs Italy U23 W
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Portugal U23 W Compare

Top Goalscorer Teles A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Dantas J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Italy U23 W Compare

Top Goalscorer Arcangeli N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Soffia A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Portugal U23 W 41 / 100
Italy U23 W 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Portugal U23 W Italy U23 W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Italy U23 W has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Portugal U23 W scored in 50% of their last 34 outings.

Recent resilience: Portugal U23 W stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Portugal U23 W VS Italy U23 W
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%