Sport Picks
Match Events
22'
22'
Joao Felix
Assist: Mendes N.
59'
59'
Ronaldo C.
63'
63'
Sub
Brooks D. In: James D.
Out: Brooks D.
AI Match Summary
Portugal in this UEFA Nations League matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Portugal.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
58%
30%
12%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Portugal
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
58%
/ Medium Confidence
- Wales haven't matched Portugal's recent run of results.
- Win probability leans Portugal's way, sitting at 50%.
- Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 3 times recently and Portugal have taken 3 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Portugal Clean Sheet 68%
Wales Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Portugal | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 36 | 28 |
| Wins | 23 | 10 |
| Draws | 6 | 9 |
| Losses | 7 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 2.06 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.92 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.81 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 24, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Portugal vs Wales
1:0
Jul 6, 2016 Euro
Portugal vs Wales
2:0
Jun 1, 2000 Friendly International
Portugal vs Wales
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Portugal Compare
Top Goalscorer Joao Felix
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91
Wales Compare
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Portugal 59 / 100
Wales 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Portugal Wales
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Portugal Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Portugal scored in 75% of their last 36 outings.
Wales's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 28 matches.
Games between these two average 2.00 goals.
Portugal has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Portugal VS Wales
2.63 Goals Scored 1.38
0.5 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Portugal
(Home) 24 Sept
Portugal
1 : 0 Wales
06 Jul
Portugal
0 : 1 Spain
02 Jul
Portugal
2 : 1 Croatia
27 Jun
Colombia
0 : 0 Portugal
23 Jun
Portugal
5 : 0 Uzbekistan
Page 1 of 8
24 Sept
Portugal
1 : 0 Wales
06 Jul
Portugal
0 : 1 Spain
02 Jul
Portugal
2 : 1 Croatia
23 Jun
Portugal
5 : 0 Uzbekistan
17 Jun
Portugal
1 : 1 D.R. Congo
Page 1 of 5
Wales
(Away) 24 Sept
Portugal
1 : 0 Wales
06 Jun
Romania
2 : 1 Wales
02 Jun
Wales
1 : 1 Ghana
31 Mar
Wales
1 : 1 Northern Ireland
26 Mar
Wales
1 : 2 Bosnia & Herzegovina
Page 1 of 6
24 Sept
Portugal
1 : 0 Wales
06 Jun
Romania
2 : 1 Wales
15 Nov
Liechtenstein
0 : 1 Wales
09 Oct
England
3 : 0 Wales
04 Sept
Kazakhstan
0 : 1 Wales
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 | Turkey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 | Italy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 | Belgium | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greece | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 2 | Germany | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 4 | Serbia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | 0 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Czech Republic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 | Croatia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 | Spain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 | England | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norway | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 2 | Portugal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 3 | Denmark | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 4 | Wales | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | 0 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
