Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Alaves C

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This Tercera RFEF - Group 4 encounter between Portugalete and Alaves C promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Portugalete averages 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded in recent matches. Alaves C shows a form average of 1.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Both teams have demonstrated potent attacking threats recently, hinting at a potentially open and high-scoring contest. Historical head-to-head records show 3 wins for Portugalete, 0 wins for Alaves C, and 2 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 09.05.26 ended in a 1:2 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.63 for Portugalete and 1.56 for Alaves C, suggesting the primary value lies in the Portugalete double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%

Portugalete

27%

Draws

29%

Alaves C

Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Portugalete

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Portugalete picked up more points recently compared to Alaves C.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 1.56 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 76%

Over 2.5 Goals 55%

Over 3.5 Goals 33%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%

Portugalete Clean Sheet 15%

Alaves C Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Portugalete	Alaves C
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	21	14
Draws	5	8
Losses	5	8
Goals Scored	1.81	1.83
Goals Conceded	0.84	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	1.88	2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

09.05.26 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Alaves C vs Portugalete

Possession: 47% - 48% Cards: 4 - 3

1:2

11.01.26 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Portugalete vs Alaves C

Possession: 43% - 53% Cards: 3 - 2

2:1

08.03.25 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Portugalete vs Alaves C

Possession: 42% - 53% Cards: 2 - 2

1:1

27.10.24 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Alaves C vs Portugalete

Possession: 52% - 43% Cards: 0 - 3

0:1

11.05.24 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Alaves C vs Portugalete

Possession: 47% - 42% Cards: 4 - 0

1:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Portugalete

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)

Attacking Style Keep the ball

Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses

Defensive Alignment Sit deep

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Alaves C

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)

Attacking Style Keep the ball

Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses

Defensive Alignment Sit deep

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Portugalete Compare

Top Goalscorer Gomez X.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Cuello Y.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.45

Avg xA / game 0.94

Alaves C Compare

Top Goalscorer Saenz I.

1 Goals

Assists Leader N/A

0 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.82

Avg xA / game 1.11

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Portugalete 43 / 100

Alaves C 28 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Portugalete Alaves C

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Portugalete or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +22.3%

2.78

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.2%

2.04

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Portugalete 48%

Alaves C 23%

15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Portugalete 42%

Alaves C 30%

30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Portugalete 44%

Alaves C 29%

45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Portugalete 46%

Alaves C 28%

60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Portugalete 40%

Alaves C 32%

75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Portugalete 51%

Alaves C 33%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Portugalete attacking → ← attacking Alaves C

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Portugalete have found the net in 87% of their last 31 matches.

Alaves C have conceded at least one goal in 67% of their last 30 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.20 goals per match.

Portugalete remained undefeated in 3 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Alaves C suffered defeat in 2 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate

Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

68 Points in last 5 50

1.88 Goals expected (xG) 2.00

1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugalete	34	24	6	4	70:29	78
2	Leioa	34	18	7	9	50:34	61
3	Derio	34	17	7	10	54:40	58
4	Lagun Onak	34	17	6	11	54:34	57
5	Touring KE	34	16	9	9	47:35	57
6	Real Sociedad C	34	17	4	13	48:39	55
7	San Ignacio	34	16	7	11	37:27	55
8	Aurrera de Vitoria	34	16	6	12	42:41	54
9	Alaves C	34	15	8	11	57:40	53
10	UD Aretxabaleta	34	13	6	15	56:61	45
11	SCD Durango	34	11	11	12	35:36	44
12	Santurtzi	34	9	12	13	32:45	39
13	Eibar C	34	9	9	16	44:53	36
14	Pasaia	34	9	9	16	26:46	36
15	Anorga	34	11	4	19	37:59	34
16	Zamudio	34	9	6	19	42:59	33
17	Zarautz KE	34	8	6	20	30:60	30
18	SD Deusto	34	6	7	21	26:49	25