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Portugalete vs Elgoibar

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Tercera Division - Group 4 2012/2013
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AI Match Summary

The Tercera Division - Group 4 2012/2013 game between Portugalete and Elgoibar finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Portugalete.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Portugalete
6%
Draws
4%
Elgoibar
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Portugalete

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Elgoibar haven't matched Portugalete's recent run of results.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Portugalete taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Portugalete have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.4%
Portugalete Clean Sheet 20%
Elgoibar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Portugalete Elgoibar
Matches Played 37 30
Wins 26 7
Draws 5 11
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.5 0
Goals Conceded 0.63 0

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 30, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Portugalete vs Elgoibar
2:0
Nov 9, 2013 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Elgoibar vs Portugalete
0:1
Feb 24, 2013 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Portugalete vs Elgoibar
2:1
Oct 7, 2012 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Elgoibar vs Portugalete
2:0
Mar 11, 2012 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Portugalete vs Elgoibar
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Portugalete 85 / 100
Elgoibar 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Portugalete Elgoibar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick POR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Portugalete scored in 89% of their last 37 games.

Elgoibar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Portugalete remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Portugalete VS -
1.5 Goals Scored 0
0.63 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Portugalete

(Home)
09 May
Alaves C
1 : 2
Portugalete
03 May
Portugalete
1 : 2
Aurrera de Vitoria
25 Apr
Leioa
1 : 1
Portugalete
17 Apr
Portugalete
4 : 2
Eibar C
11 Apr
Anorga
4 : 1
Portugalete
Page 1 of 8

Elgoibar

(Away)
15 Jul
Elgoibar
0 : 5
Real Sociedad
10 May
Zamudio
0 : 0
Elgoibar
03 May
Elgoibar
0 : 1
Bermeo
26 Apr
Beasain
2 : 1
Elgoibar
17 Apr
Elgoibar
0 : 0
Santutxu FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Laudio382312365:2981
2Arenas Getxo38239654:2478
3Portugalete382110775:3873
4Leioa382011743:2871
5Gernika Club381912758:3169
6Zalla UC381813751:3667
7Bermeo3812161052:4752
8SCD Durango3811151239:4448
9Zamudio3811141341:5247
10Beasain3811141338:4147
11Lagun Onak3811131436:4146
12Basconia381361949:5945
13Pasaia3810131543:6443
14Alaves B3811101740:4843
15Elgoibar3810131535:4243
16Santutxu FC3810111739:5541
17Balmaseda381172049:5740
18Deportivo Getxo389121734:4939
19Aurrera de Vitoria38782327:5729
20Anaitasuna FT38672535:6125
Promotion - Tercera Division - Play Offs 2012/2013 (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2012/2013 (Main)