Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Lagun Onak

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Portugalete play Lagun Onak in the Tercera RFEF - Group 4. It looks like a close match. Recently, Portugalete averaged 1.83 goals scored and 0.87 conceded. Lagun Onak averaged 1.5 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. In past meetings, Portugalete won 2, Lagun Onak won 0, and they drew 3. Their last match on Feb 22, 2026 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Portugalete and 1.56 for Lagun Onak. This points to a Portugalete double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Portugalete

31%

Draws

29%

Lagun Onak

Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Portugalete

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Portugalete picked up more points recently compared to Lagun Onak.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.56 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 71%

Over 2.5 Goals 51%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%

Portugalete Clean Sheet 15%

Lagun Onak Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 64%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Portugalete	Lagun Onak
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	20	15
Draws	5	6
Losses	5	9
Goals Scored	1.83	1.5
Goals Conceded	0.87	0.97
Expected Goals (xG)	1.50	1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Portugalete vs Lagun Onak

Possession: 57% - 58% Cards: 4 - 2

3:0

Oct 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Lagun Onak vs Portugalete

Possession: 43% - 44% Cards: 0 - 4

2:3

Mar 16, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Lagun Onak vs Portugalete

Possession: 54% - 56% Cards: 1 - 0

3:3

Nov 1, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Portugalete vs Lagun Onak

Possession: 51% - 59% Cards: 3 - 3

1:1

Apr 20, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Lagun Onak vs Portugalete

Possession: 51% - 42% Cards: 3 - 3

2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Portugalete Compare

Top Goalscorer Aranburu I.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Perez A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.15

Avg xA / game 0.75

Lagun Onak Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59

Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Portugalete 39 / 100

Lagun Onak 28 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Portugalete Lagun Onak

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Portugalete or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +25.2%

3.13

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +13.2%

2.22

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Portugalete attacking → ← attacking Lagun Onak

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Portugalete scored in 87% of their last 30 games.

Lagun Onak let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Portugalete went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Lagun Onak lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

65 Points in last 5 51

1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.75

1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugalete	34	24	6	4	70:29	78
2	Leioa	34	18	7	9	50:34	61
3	Derio	34	17	7	10	54:40	58
4	Lagun Onak	34	17	6	11	54:34	57
5	Touring KE	34	16	9	9	47:35	57
6	Real Sociedad C	34	17	4	13	48:39	55
7	San Ignacio	34	16	7	11	37:27	55
8	Aurrera de Vitoria	34	16	6	12	42:41	54
9	Alaves C	34	15	8	11	57:40	53
10	UD Aretxabaleta	34	13	6	15	56:61	45
11	SCD Durango	34	11	11	12	35:36	44
12	Santurtzi	34	9	12	13	32:45	39
13	Eibar C	34	9	9	16	44:53	36
14	Pasaia	34	9	9	16	26:46	36
15	Anorga	34	11	4	19	37:59	34
16	Zamudio	34	9	6	19	42:59	33
17	Zarautz KE	34	8	6	20	30:60	30
18	SD Deusto	34	6	7	21	26:49	25