Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2024/2025

Padura

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Portugalete play Padura in the Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2024/2025. Portugalete are favorites here. Recently, Portugalete averaged 1.84 goals scored and 0.88 conceded. Padura averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. In past meetings, Portugalete won 4, Padura won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 26, 2025 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.35 for Portugalete and 0.81 for Padura. This points to a Portugalete double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%

Portugalete

21%

Draws

18%

Padura

Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Portugalete

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

90% / Very High Confidence

Portugalete picked up more points recently compared to Padura.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.35 vs 0.81 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 51%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%

Portugalete Clean Sheet 26%

Padura Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Portugalete	Padura
Matches Played	32	30
Wins	21	6
Draws	6	7
Losses	5	17
Goals Scored	1.84	0.93
Goals Conceded	0.88	1.43

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Portugalete vs Padura

Possession: 54% - 56% Cards: 1 - 1

3:1

Dec 14, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Padura vs Portugalete

Possession: 54% - 42% Cards: 3 - 2

1:1

Mar 28, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Portugalete vs Padura

Possession: 42% - 60% Cards: 1 - 3

3:1

Nov 12, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Padura vs Portugalete

Possession: 59% - 55% Cards: 3 - 0

0:2

Jan 28, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Padura vs Portugalete

Possession: 41% - 53% Cards: 1 - 3

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Portugalete Compare

Top Goalscorer Cortezon X.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Crespo G.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.15

Avg xA / game 0.75

Padura Compare

Top Goalscorer Zugazaga I.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Portugalete 60 / 100

Padura 18 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Portugalete Padura

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Portugalete Win (1)

Secondary Pick Portugalete & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +15.3%

1.89

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +13.2%

2.22

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Portugalete attacking → ← attacking Padura

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Portugalete scored in 88% of their last 32 games.

Padura let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Portugalete went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Padura lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

69 Points in last 5 25

1.50 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Basconia	34	23	7	4	89:32	76
2	Portugalete	34	19	13	2	66:29	70
3	Leioa	34	20	6	8	55:34	66
4	Beasain	34	19	7	8	53:34	64
5	SD Deusto	34	15	9	10	43:35	54
6	Alaves C	34	14	6	14	41:41	48
7	Touring KE	34	13	9	12	39:45	48
8	Derio	34	12	11	11	39:39	47
9	Eibar C	34	12	10	12	46:51	46
10	UD Aretxabaleta	34	12	8	14	40:45	44
11	Lagun Onak	34	11	9	14	44:49	42
12	San Ignacio	34	11	9	14	32:41	42
13	SCD Durango	34	9	13	12	43:37	40
14	Pasaia	34	10	9	15	45:60	39
15	Santurtzi	34	8	14	12	46:43	38
16	Urduliz FT	34	9	9	16	37:56	36
17	Padura	34	7	8	19	31:48	29
18	San Viator	34	1	5	28	21:91	8