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Potencia vs Progreso

Uruguay Uruguay

Segunda Division 2023
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Risso B.
(Penalty)
32' Event
Morales L.
45'
Ferreira J.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda Division 2023 game between Potencia and Progreso finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Potencia
15%
Draws
59%
Progreso
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Progreso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Progreso carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 59% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Segunda Division 2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Potencia Clean Sheet 23%
Progreso Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Potencia Progreso
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 4 9
Draws 10 4
Losses 16 18
Goals Scored 0.73 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.35
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 22, 2023 Segunda Division
Potencia vs Progreso
2:2
Jun 4, 2023 Segunda Division
Progreso vs Potencia
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Potencia Compare

Top Goalscorer Morales L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.71

Progreso Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.55

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Potencia 37 / 100
Progreso 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Potencia Progreso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Progreso Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Progreso's defensive record shows goals conceded in 84% of 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Potencia scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

Solid form: Potencia remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Progreso
0 Goals Scored 0.88
0 Goals Conceded 1.63
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Potencia

(Home)
11 Aug
Potencia
2 : 0
Rocha
04 Dec
Atenas
3 : 0
Potencia
29 Nov
Potencia
1 : 1
Rampla Juniors
26 Nov
Club Oriental De Futbol
1 : 0
Potencia
20 Nov
Potencia
0 : 2
Cerrito
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Progreso

(Away)
26 Sept
Progreso
2 : 1
Racing Montevideo
19 Sept
Boston River
1 : 2
Progreso
16 Sept
Progreso
0 : 1
Club Nacional
13 Sept
Progreso
1 : 3
CA Cerro
07 Sept
Albion
0 : 1
Progreso
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