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Pouso Alegre vs Atletico-MG

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro Estadio Do Manduzao, Pouso Alegre
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Gabriel Tota
Assist: Xandao
44'
Sub
Alexsander In: Victor Hugo
Out: Alexsander
51' Event
Reinier
Assist: Gustavo Scarpa

AI Match Summary

The Mineiro game between Pouso Alegre and Atletico-MG finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atletico-MG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Pouso Alegre
15%
Draws
64%
Atletico-MG
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Atletico-MG

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Atletico-MG come out ahead of Pouso Alegre on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Atletico-MG have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Pouso Alegre Clean Sheet 20%
Atletico-MG Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pouso Alegre Atletico-MG
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 14
Draws 3 10
Losses 18 5
Goals Scored 0.97 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2026 Mineiro
Pouso Alegre vs Atletico-MG
1:3
Jan 26, 2025 Mineiro
Pouso Alegre vs Atletico-MG
0:0
Feb 26, 2022 Mineiro
Pouso Alegre vs Atletico-MG
2:3
Apr 7, 2021 Mineiro
Atletico-MG vs Pouso Alegre
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pouso Alegre Compare

Top Goalscorer Gabriel Tota
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Atletico-MG Compare

Top Goalscorer Reinier
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ruan Tressoldi
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pouso Alegre 32 / 100
Atletico-MG 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pouso Alegre Atletico-MG

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atletico-MG's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Attacking prowess: Pouso Alegre scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Pouso Alegre stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pouso Alegre VS Atletico-MG
0 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 0.5
0% Over 1.5 38%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Pouso Alegre

(Home)
06 Jun
Madureira
1 : 0
Pouso Alegre
30 May
Pouso Alegre
1 : 2
Portuguesa
23 May
Agua Santa
2 : 0
Pouso Alegre
16 May
Pouso Alegre
0 : 2
Portuguesa RJ
09 May
Pouso Alegre
3 : 0
America RJ
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Atletico-MG

(Away)
12 Sept
Atletico-MG
3 : 1
Fluminense
09 Sept
Santos
2 : 0
Atletico-MG
05 Sept
Sao Paulo
2 : 0
Atletico-MG
02 Sept
Atletico-MG
2 : 1
Cruzeiro
29 Aug
Atletico-MG
2 : 1
Vitoria
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico-MG 8 3 5 0 16:8 14
2 URT 8 3 2 3 7:7 11
3 Uberlandia 8 2 3 3 8:12 9
4 Democrata GV 8 2 1 5 3:8 7
Promotion - Mineiro (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 America MG 8 4 3 1 10:6 15
2 Pouso Alegre 8 4 1 3 14:14 13
3 Tombense 8 3 3 2 10:7 12
4 Betim FC 8 2 3 3 6:9 9
Promotion - Mineiro (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cruzeiro 8 5 0 3 14:7 15
2 North Esporte Clube 8 3 2 3 14:11 11
3 Itabirito 8 2 1 5 10:17 7
4 Athletic Club 8 1 4 3 7:13 7
Promotion - Mineiro (Play Offs)