Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Pouso Alegre vs Itabirito

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro Estadio Do Manduzao, Pouso Alegre
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Da Silva
21'
Alexandre Pena
31' Event
Pedro Arthur
Assist: Romario

AI Match Summary

The Mineiro game between Pouso Alegre and Itabirito finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pouso Alegre.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Pouso Alegre
15%
Draws
57%
Itabirito
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Itabirito

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence
  • Pouso Alegre carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 28% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Mineiro form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Pouso Alegre Clean Sheet 68%
Itabirito Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pouso Alegre Itabirito
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 10 5
Draws 3 10
Losses 19 15
Goals Scored 1.03 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 15, 2026 Mineiro
Pouso Alegre vs Itabirito
3:1
Feb 8, 2025 Mineiro
Itabirito vs Pouso Alegre
1:0
Mar 16, 2024 Mineiro
Pouso Alegre vs Itabirito
5:2
Mar 10, 2024 Mineiro
Itabirito vs Pouso Alegre
4:1
Feb 8, 2024 Mineiro
Pouso Alegre vs Itabirito
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pouso Alegre Compare

Top Goalscorer Pedro Arthur
1 Goals
Assists Leader Caua de Aguiar Alves M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Itabirito Compare

Top Goalscorer Ruan Levine
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pouso Alegre 41 / 100
Itabirito 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pouso Alegre Itabirito

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pouso Alegre Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Itabirito has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Away concern: Itabirito has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Pouso Alegre found the back of the net in 56% of recent matches (32 games).

Scoring Trends

Pouso Alegre VS Itabirito
1.13 Goals Scored 1.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 3
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Pouso Alegre

(Home)
06 Jun
Madureira
1 : 0
Pouso Alegre
30 May
Pouso Alegre
1 : 2
Portuguesa
23 May
Agua Santa
2 : 0
Pouso Alegre
16 May
Pouso Alegre
0 : 2
Portuguesa RJ
09 May
Pouso Alegre
3 : 0
America RJ
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Itabirito

(Away)
14 Feb
Itabirito
2 : 7
Atletico-MG
06 Feb
Betim FC
0 : 2
Itabirito
01 Feb
Itabirito
2 : 3
Tombense
24 Jan
URT
2 : 1
Itabirito
21 Jan
Uberlandia
0 : 1
Itabirito
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico-MG 8 3 5 0 16:8 14
2 URT 8 3 2 3 7:7 11
3 Uberlandia 8 2 3 3 8:12 9
4 Democrata GV 8 2 1 5 3:8 7
Promotion - Mineiro (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 America MG 8 4 3 1 10:6 15
2 Pouso Alegre 8 4 1 3 14:14 13
3 Tombense 8 3 3 2 10:7 12
4 Betim FC 8 2 3 3 6:9 9
Promotion - Mineiro (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cruzeiro 8 5 0 3 14:7 15
2 North Esporte Clube 8 3 2 3 14:11 11
3 Itabirito 8 2 1 5 10:17 7
4 Athletic Club 8 1 4 3 7:13 7
Promotion - Mineiro (Play Offs)