Sport Picks

Portugal

Taça de Portugal 2016/2017

Aljustrelense

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Praia Milfontes play Aljustrelense in the Taça de Portugal 2016/2017. Aljustrelense are favorites here. Recently, Praia Milfontes averaged 0.71 goals scored and 3 conceded. Aljustrelense averaged 0.79 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. In past meetings, Praia Milfontes won 0, Aljustrelense won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Sep 27, 2020 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.54 for Praia Milfontes and 2.69 for Aljustrelense. This points to a Aljustrelense double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%

Praia Milfontes

15%

Draws

67%

Aljustrelense

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aljustrelense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence

Praia Milfontes picked up more points recently compared to Aljustrelense.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.54 vs 2.69 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 68%

Over 2.5 Goals 50%

Over 3.5 Goals 30%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%

Praia Milfontes Clean Sheet 10%

Aljustrelense Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 61%

Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Praia Milfontes	Aljustrelense
Matches Played	7	24
Wins	0	7
Draws	0	2
Losses	7	15
Goals Scored	0.71	0.79
Goals Conceded	3	1.83
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	5.00	1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2020 Taça de Portugal

Aljustrelense vs Praia Milfontes

Possession: 51% - 50% Cards: 1 - 2

1:0

Sep 9, 2018 Taça de Portugal

Aljustrelense vs Praia Milfontes

Possession: 56% - 43% Cards: 3 - 4

1:0

Sep 4, 2016 Taça de Portugal

Praia Milfontes vs Aljustrelense

Possession: 54% - 51% Cards: 4 - 2

1:4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Praia Milfontes 18 / 100

Aljustrelense 62 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Praia Milfontes Aljustrelense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aljustrelense Win (2)

Secondary Pick Aljustrelense & Under 3.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +80%

10.00

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +13.5%

2.27

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Praia Milfontes attacking → ← attacking Aljustrelense

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Praia Milfontes scored in 43% of their last 7 games.

Aljustrelense let in goals in 75% of their last 24 matches.

Games between these two average 2.33 goals.

Praia Milfontes went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Aljustrelense lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

0 Points in last 5 23

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.38

5.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88