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Prato vs Certaldo

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

57' Event
Akammadu F.
81' Event
Moreo R.
86' Event
Gori L.

AI Match Summary

Prato in this Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Prato.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Prato
20%
Draws
23%
Certaldo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Prato

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Prato lately — more wins on the board than Certaldo.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Prato taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Prato Clean Sheet 68%
Certaldo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Prato Certaldo
Matches Played 37 30
Wins 21 6
Draws 8 6
Losses 8 18
Goals Scored 1.46 0.73
Goals Conceded 0.81 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 25, 2024 Serie D - Group D
Prato vs Certaldo
3:2
Oct 22, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Certaldo vs Prato
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Prato Compare

Top Goalscorer Moreo R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gori L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.71

Certaldo Compare

Top Goalscorer Akammadu F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader De Pellegrin T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Prato 95 / 100
Certaldo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Prato Certaldo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Prato Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Prato scored in 78% of their last 37 games.

Certaldo let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Prato went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Prato VS -
1.63 Goals Scored 0
0.75 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Prato

(Home)
16 Sept
Prato
1 : 1
Grassina
13 Sept
Rondinella
1 : 3
Prato
06 Sept
Prato
1 : 0
Ternana
17 May
Prato
1 : 2
Seravezza Pozzi
10 May
Prato
3 : 1
Siena
Page 1 of 8

Certaldo

(Away)
05 May
Carpi
5 : 1
Certaldo
28 Apr
Certaldo
3 : 2
Aglianese Calcio
21 Apr
Ravenna
3 : 0
Certaldo
14 Apr
Certaldo
1 : 6
Corticella
07 Apr
Victor San Marino
1 : 1
Certaldo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Carpi 32 21 5 6 66:31 68
2 Ravenna 32 19 9 4 56:13 66
3 Corticella 32 18 3 11 59:40 57
4 Victor San Marino 32 17 6 9 44:37 57
5 Lentigione 32 16 8 8 49:31 56
6 Forli FC 32 16 7 9 48:35 55
7 Prato 32 12 8 12 37:41 44
8 Sangiuliano City 32 12 8 12 32:37 44
9 Fanfulla 32 11 10 11 28:35 43
10 Sant'Angelo 32 11 8 13 47:44 41
11 Aglianese Calcio 32 11 8 13 32:39 41
12 Imolese 32 12 6 14 31:33 40
13 Sammaurese 32 11 4 17 37:48 37
14 SCD Progresso 32 11 4 17 27:43 37
15 San Donnino 32 5 10 17 32:58 25
16 Certaldo 32 6 6 20 22:55 24
17 Mezzolara 32 5 6 21 23:50 21
18 Pistoiese 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 (Play Offs)