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Prato vs Grosseto

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Verde F.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 game between Prato and Grosseto finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Prato.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
Prato
20%
Draws
24%
Grosseto
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Prato

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Grosseto come out ahead of Prato on wins alone.
  • 56% — that's where the model lands on Prato taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Prato Clean Sheet 68%
Grosseto Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Prato Grosseto
Matches Played 32 35
Wins 19 20
Draws 5 7
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 1.47 1.74
Goals Conceded 0.94 0.89
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Prato vs Grosseto
1:0
Dec 7, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Grosseto vs Prato
1:0
Apr 26, 2015 Serie C - Group B
Grosseto vs Prato
1:0
Dec 13, 2014 Serie C - Group B
Prato vs Grosseto
1:1
Apr 27, 2014 Lega Pro C1/B
Grosseto vs Prato
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Prato Compare

Top Goalscorer Verde F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Grosseto Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Prato 77 / 100
Grosseto 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Prato Grosseto

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Prato Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Prato found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (32 games).

Grosseto's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 35 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Prato went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Prato VS Grosseto
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Prato

(Home)
17 May
Prato
1 : 2
Seravezza Pozzi
10 May
Prato
3 : 1
Siena
03 May
Prato
1 : 0
Montevarchi
26 Apr
Sporting Trestina
0 : 2
Prato
19 Apr
Prato
1 : 0
Grosseto
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Grosseto

(Away)
14 Aug
Grosseto
2 : 3
Guidonia 1937
08 Aug
Grosseto
3 : 1
Terranuova Traiana
05 Aug
Grosseto
2 : 2
Tau
02 Aug
Perugia
1 : 1
Grosseto
29 Jul
Grosseto
1 : 2
San Donato Tavarnelle
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Grosseto 34 22 6 6 58:25 72
2 Tau 34 18 9 7 53:33 63
3 Prato 34 20 5 9 49:29 63
4 Siena 34 17 9 8 57:35 60
5 Seravezza Pozzi 34 15 12 7 42:29 57
6 Terranuova Traiana 34 14 9 11 28:30 51
7 Foligno 34 14 9 11 45:37 51
8 Scandicci 34 11 15 8 39:32 48
9 Montevarchi 34 10 16 8 28:32 46
10 Sporting Trestina 34 10 12 12 40:42 42
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 9 13 12 30:35 40
12 Ghiviborgo 34 10 10 14 42:44 40
13 Orvietana 34 9 11 14 33:37 38
14 Follonica Gavorrano 34 9 10 15 36:49 37
15 Camaiore Calcio 34 9 8 17 41:54 35
16 Poggibonsi 34 7 10 17 29:46 31
17 Cannara 34 6 8 20 24:59 26
18 Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro 34 2 16 16 20:46 22
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Out)