Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Prato vs Montevarchi

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Cesari M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group E game between Prato and Montevarchi finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Prato.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
Prato
20%
Draws
24%
Montevarchi
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Prato

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Prato come out ahead of Montevarchi on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Prato's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group E form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Prato Clean Sheet 20%
Montevarchi Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Prato Montevarchi
Matches Played 33 31
Wins 20 9
Draws 5 14
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 1.75 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.38 0.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Prato vs Montevarchi
1:0
Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs Prato
0:0
Oct 8, 2025 Coppa Italia Serie D
Prato vs Montevarchi
2:1
Sep 16, 2020 Club Friendly
Montevarchi vs Prato
1:1
Mar 24, 2019 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs Prato
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Prato Compare

Top Goalscorer Cesari M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Montevarchi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Prato 85 / 100
Montevarchi 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Prato Montevarchi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PRA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Prato scored in 82% of their last 33 outings.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Solid form: Prato remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Montevarchi has conceded goals in 48% of their last 31 outings.

Scoring Trends

Prato VS Montevarchi
1.75 Goals Scored 0.75
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.38
50% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Prato

(Home)
17 May
Prato
1 : 2
Seravezza Pozzi
10 May
Prato
3 : 1
Siena
03 May
Prato
1 : 0
Montevarchi
26 Apr
Sporting Trestina
0 : 2
Prato
19 Apr
Prato
1 : 0
Grosseto
Page 1 of 7

Montevarchi

(Away)
05 Aug
Pianese
2 : 0
Montevarchi
03 May
Prato
1 : 0
Montevarchi
26 Apr
Montevarchi
1 : 0
Ghiviborgo
19 Apr
Siena
0 : 0
Montevarchi
12 Apr
Montevarchi
1 : 1
Terranuova Traiana
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Grosseto 34 22 6 6 58:25 72
2 Tau 34 18 9 7 53:33 63
3 Prato 34 20 5 9 49:29 63
4 Siena 34 17 9 8 57:35 60
5 Seravezza Pozzi 34 15 12 7 42:29 57
6 Terranuova Traiana 34 14 9 11 28:30 51
7 Foligno 34 14 9 11 45:37 51
8 Scandicci 34 11 15 8 39:32 48
9 Montevarchi 34 10 16 8 28:32 46
10 Sporting Trestina 34 10 12 12 40:42 42
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 9 13 12 30:35 40
12 Ghiviborgo 34 10 10 14 42:44 40
13 Orvietana 34 9 11 14 33:37 38
14 Follonica Gavorrano 34 9 10 15 36:49 37
15 Camaiore Calcio 34 9 8 17 41:54 35
16 Poggibonsi 34 7 10 17 29:46 31
17 Cannara 34 6 8 20 24:59 26
18 Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro 34 2 16 16 20:46 22
Promotion - Serie D - Group E (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E (Play Out)