Sport Picks
Match Events
1'
1'
Tommasini E.
61'
61'
90'
90'
Gioe B.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
56%
20%
24%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Prato
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
56%
/ Medium Confidence
- Prato have won more games recently than Montevarchi.
- Prato are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Prato have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Prato, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 20%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Prato Clean Sheet 68%
Montevarchi Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Prato | Montevarchi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 33 | 31 |
| Wins | 20 | 9 |
| Draws | 5 | 14 |
| Losses | 8 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.48 | 0.68 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.94 | 0.81 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.06 | 0.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Prato vs Montevarchi
1:0
Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs Prato
0:0
Oct 8, 2025 Coppa Italia Serie D
Prato vs Montevarchi
2:1
Sep 16, 2020 Club Friendly
Montevarchi vs Prato
1:1
Mar 24, 2019 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs Prato
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Prato Compare
Top Goalscorer Gioe B.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53
Montevarchi Compare
Top Goalscorer Tommasini E.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.51
Avg xA / game 0.31
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Prato 95 / 100
Montevarchi 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Prato Montevarchi
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick PRA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Prato scored in 82% of their last 33 games.
H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.
Prato went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Defensive concern: Montevarchi conceded in 48% of 31 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Prato VS Montevarchi
1.75 Goals Scored 0.75
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.38
50% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Prato
(Home) 17 May
Prato
1 : 2 Seravezza Pozzi
10 May
Prato
3 : 1 Siena
03 May
Prato
1 : 0 Montevarchi
26 Apr
Sporting Trestina
0 : 2 Prato
19 Apr
Prato
1 : 0 Grosseto
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17 May
Prato
1 : 2 Seravezza Pozzi
10 May
Prato
3 : 1 Siena
03 May
Prato
1 : 0 Montevarchi
19 Apr
Prato
1 : 0 Grosseto
02 Apr
Prato
1 : 0 Seravezza Pozzi
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Montevarchi
(Away) 05 Aug
Pianese
2 : 0 Montevarchi
03 May
Prato
1 : 0 Montevarchi
26 Apr
Montevarchi
1 : 0 Ghiviborgo
19 Apr
Siena
0 : 0 Montevarchi
12 Apr
Montevarchi
1 : 1 Terranuova Traiana
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05 Aug
Pianese
2 : 0 Montevarchi
03 May
Prato
1 : 0 Montevarchi
19 Apr
Siena
0 : 0 Montevarchi
02 Apr
Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro
0 : 0 Montevarchi
22 Mar
Follonica Gavorrano
0 : 0 Montevarchi
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Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Asti Calcio 2
Chisola 0
Ligorna 1
NovaRomentin 2
Vado 3
Sestri Levante 0
Tau 1
Pistoiese 3
Piacenza 2
SCD Progresso 1
Pavia 2
Sant'Angelo 0
Prato 2
Montevarchi 1
Correggese 2
Imolese 1
Sondrio 1
Breno 0
Folgore Caratese 2
Club Milano 3
AC Milan U23 2
Varesina 3
Brusaporto 0
Ciserano-Bergamo 1
Chievo 0
Rovato Vertovese 1
Este 3
Vigasio 2
Cjarlins Muzane 1
Brian Lignano 2
Luparense FC 0
Mestre 1
Fossombrone 0
Ancona 1
Foligno 0
Atletico Ascoli 2
Orvietana 2
Siena 0
Follonica Gavorrano 0
Valmontone 1
Notaresco Calcio 2
Termoli 0
Albalonga 2
Aquila Calcio 1
Grosseto 0
Unipomezia 1
Trastevere Calcio 2
Budoni Calcio 0
Martina Calcio 3
Sarnese 1
Ferrandina 2
Francavilla 3
A.C. Savoia 2
Paganese 1
Citta di Fasano 3
Gravina 0
Nocerina 4
Gelbison 2
Sambiase 0
Reggina 1
Castrumfavara 3
Igea Virtus 1
Enna 0
Sancataldese 2
1/16-finals
Asti Calcio 3
NovaRomentin 2
Vado 0
Pistoiese 3
Piacenza 2
Pavia 1
Prato 1
Correggese 4
Sondrio 0
Club Milano 3
Varesina 4
Ciserano-Bergamo 1
Rovato Vertovese 1
Este 3
Brian Lignano 0
Mestre 1
Ancona 1
Atletico Ascoli 0
Orvietana 0
Valmontone 1
Notaresco Calcio 2
Albalonga 1
Unipomezia 3
Trastevere Calcio 1
Martina Calcio 1
Francavilla 2
A.C. Savoia 3
Citta di Fasano 4
Nocerina 3
Reggina 2
Castrumfavara 3
Sancataldese 2
1/8-finals
Asti Calcio 1
Pistoiese 3
Piacenza 0
Correggese 1
Club Milano 1
Varesina 0
Este 1
Mestre 2
Ancona 2
Valmontone 1
Notaresco Calcio 0
Unipomezia 1
Francavilla 3
Citta di Fasano 2
Nocerina 2
Castrumfavara 0
Quarter-finals
Pistoiese 2
Correggese 0
Club Milano 1
Mestre 0
Ancona 2
Unipomezia 1
Francavilla 1
Nocerina 0
Semi-finals
Pistoiese 3
Club Milano 1
Ancona 2
Francavilla 1
Final
Pistoiese 3
Ancona 0
