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Stadium Background

Prato vs Ternana

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E
Our Tip

Match Events

59' Event
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group E game between Prato and Ternana finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Prato.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Prato
30%
Draws
23%
Ternana
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Prato

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Prato come out ahead of Ternana on wins alone.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Prato taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Prato Clean Sheet 68%
Ternana Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Prato Ternana
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 20 10
Draws 5 8
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 1.52 1.32
Goals Conceded 0.81 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Prato vs Ternana
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Prato 68 / 100
Ternana 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Prato Ternana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Prato Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Prato's goal record stands at 84% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Defensive concern: Ternana conceded in 79% of 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: Prato stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Prato VS Ternana
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Prato

(Home)
20 Sept
Sasso Marconi
0 : 1
Prato
16 Sept
Prato
1 : 1
Grassina
13 Sept
Rondinella
1 : 3
Prato
06 Sept
Prato
1 : 0
Ternana
17 May
Prato
1 : 2
Seravezza Pozzi
Page 1 of 7

Ternana

(Away)
20 Sept
Ternana
3 : 0
Tau
16 Sept
Mezzolara
2 : 1
Ternana
12 Sept
Ternana
1 : 1
Follonica Gavorrano
06 Sept
Prato
1 : 0
Ternana
03 May
Pianese
1 : 1
Ternana
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Follonica Gavorrano 4 3 1 0 6:1 10
2 Prato 4 3 1 0 6:2 10
3 Seravezza Pozzi 4 2 1 1 10:3 7
4 Terranuova Traiana 4 2 1 1 10:5 7
5 Siena 4 2 1 1 9:4 7
6 Scandicci 4 2 1 1 8:5 7
7 Lucchese 4 2 1 1 7:6 7
8 San Donato Tavarnelle 4 2 1 1 6:5 7
9 Flaminia 4 2 1 1 6:7 7
10 Tau 4 2 0 2 6:10 6
11 Mezzolara 4 1 2 1 3:5 5
12 Ternana 4 1 1 2 5:4 4
13 Montevarchi 4 1 1 2 6:7 4
14 Sasso Marconi 4 1 1 2 5:7 4
15 SCD Progresso 4 1 0 3 3:11 3
16 Rondinella 4 0 2 2 1:6 2
17 Grassina 4 0 1 3 3:7 1
18 Ghiviborgo 4 0 1 3 2:7 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group E (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E (Play Out)