Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Primavera EC vs Portuguesa

Brazil Brazil

Paulista Estádio Ítalo Mário Limongi, Indaiatuba
Our Tip

Match Events

26'
41' Event
Welliton
48'
Junior Caicara

AI Match Summary

The Paulista game between Primavera EC and Portuguesa finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Portuguesa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Primavera EC
20%
Draws
40%
Portuguesa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Portuguesa come out ahead of Primavera EC on wins alone.
  • Model gives Primavera EC a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Portuguesa here — 4 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Primavera EC Clean Sheet 68%
Portuguesa Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Primavera EC Portuguesa
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 14 16
Draws 4 6
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.69 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.07 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2026 Paulista
Primavera EC vs Portuguesa
1:2
Mar 29, 2022 Paulista A2
Portuguesa vs Primavera EC
1:0
Mar 26, 2022 Paulista A2
Primavera EC vs Portuguesa
0:1
Jan 27, 2022 Paulista A2
Primavera EC vs Portuguesa
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Primavera EC Compare

Top Goalscorer Welliton
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Portuguesa Compare

Top Goalscorer Matheus Cadorini
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cauari
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Primavera EC 68 / 100
Portuguesa 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Primavera EC Portuguesa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Primavera EC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Primavera EC's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Portuguesa conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Primavera EC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Primavera EC VS Portuguesa
1.63 Goals Scored 1.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Primavera EC

(Home)
29 Aug
Sao Caetano
0 : 5
Primavera EC
22 Aug
Primavera EC
1 : 2
Paulista
16 Aug
Osasco Sporting
1 : 2
Primavera EC
08 Aug
Primavera EC
2 : 2
Juventus-SP
02 Aug
Juventus-SP
0 : 1
Primavera EC
Page 1 of 6

Portuguesa

(Away)
25 Jul
Portuguesa
1 : 0
Uberlandia
18 Jul
Uberlandia
2 : 0
Portuguesa
11 Jul
Portuguesa
2 : 0
Marcilio Dias
04 Jul
Marcilio Dias
1 : 1
Portuguesa
27 Jun
Portuguesa
1 : 0
Sampaio Correa FE
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Novorizontino 8 5 1 2 16:10 16
2 Palmeiras 8 5 1 2 8:7 16
3 Bragantino 8 4 4 0 14:2 16
4 Portuguesa 8 5 0 3 11:7 15
5 Corinthians 8 4 2 2 10:6 14
6 Sao Paulo 8 4 1 3 11:12 13
7 Capivariano 8 4 1 3 7:10 13
8 Santos 8 3 3 2 12:7 12
9 Guarani 8 3 3 2 6:7 12
10 Botafogo SP 8 3 2 3 5:9 11
11 Mirassol 8 2 2 4 10:8 8
12 Primavera EC 8 2 2 4 14:15 8
13 Sao Bernardo 8 2 2 4 8:10 8
14 Noroeste 8 1 5 2 11:11 8
15 Velo Clube 8 1 2 5 2:13 5
16 Ponte Preta 8 0 1 7 3:14 1
Promotion - Paulista (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista A2 2027 (Main)