Sport Picks

Croatia

3. HNL South

Zmaj Makarska

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Primorac Biograd play Zmaj Makarska in the 3. HNL South. It looks like a close match. Recently, Primorac Biograd averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Zmaj Makarska averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Primorac Biograd won 1, Zmaj Makarska won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 22, 2022 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Primorac Biograd and 1.25 for Zmaj Makarska. This points to a Primorac Biograd double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Primorac Biograd

23%

Draws

37%

Zmaj Makarska

Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Primorac Biograd

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Primorac Biograd picked up more points recently compared to Zmaj Makarska.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.25 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 66%

Over 2.5 Goals 50%

Over 3.5 Goals 30%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%

Primorac Biograd Clean Sheet 19%

Zmaj Makarska Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 59%

Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Primorac Biograd	Zmaj Makarska
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	13	10
Draws	4	9
Losses	13	11
Goals Scored	1.67	0.83
Goals Conceded	1.6	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.00	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2022 3. HNL South

Zmaj Makarska vs Primorac Biograd

Possession: 50% - 58% Cards: 3 - 3

1:0

Nov 20, 2021 3. HNL South

Primorac Biograd vs Zmaj Makarska

Possession: 43% - 52% Cards: 0 - 1

1:0

Apr 10, 2021 3. HNL South

Primorac Biograd vs Zmaj Makarska

Possession: 43% - 50% Cards: 3 - 3

1:1

Sep 19, 2020 3. HNL South

Zmaj Makarska vs Primorac Biograd

Possession: 44% - 59% Cards: 1 - 1

2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Primorac Biograd 40 / 100

Zmaj Makarska 36 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Primorac Biograd Zmaj Makarska

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Primorac Biograd or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +25.2%

3.13

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +13.5%

2.27

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Primorac Biograd attacking → ← attacking Zmaj Makarska

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Primorac Biograd scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Zmaj Makarska let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.75 goals.

Primorac Biograd went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Zmaj Makarska lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 39

1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.50

2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Jadran Luka Ploce	34	20	5	9	67:28	65
2	Hrvatski Vitez Posedarje	34	18	6	10	56:38	60
3	Hrvace	34	18	6	10	46:39	60
4	HNK Zadar	34	16	11	7	69:28	59
5	Neretva	34	16	7	11	50:36	55
6	RNK Split	34	15	7	12	52:40	52
7	NK Junak Sinj	34	16	4	14	49:46	52
8	Uskok Klis	34	15	6	13	51:54	51
9	Sloga Mravince	34	12	14	8	48:45	50
10	Primorac Biograd	34	14	6	14	60:56	48
11	Zagora	34	12	8	14	47:52	44
12	GOSK Dubrovnik	34	11	10	13	35:34	43
13	Zmaj Makarska	34	11	10	13	28:39	43
14	Neretvanac	34	10	8	16	40:53	38
15	Kamen Podbablje	34	9	10	15	37:51	37
16	Vodice	34	8	9	17	44:73	33
17	Urania Baska Voda	34	10	3	21	33:65	33
18	OSK Otok	34	6	8	20	48:83	26