Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Pro Sesto vs US Pontedera

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D Stadio Ernesto Breda, Sesto San Giovanni
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Costantino R.
23' Event
Costantino R.
61' Event
Costantino R.

AI Match Summary

Pro Sesto in this Serie D - Group D matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pro Sesto.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

68%
Pro Sesto
15%
Draws
17%
US Pontedera
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Pro Sesto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Pro Sesto lately — more wins on the board than US Pontedera.
  • Pro Sesto are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Pro Sesto Clean Sheet 68%
US Pontedera Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pro Sesto US Pontedera
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 14 1
Draws 7 8
Losses 9 19
Goals Scored 1.53 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.76
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Pro Sesto vs US Pontedera
3:0
Apr 3, 2021 Serie C - Group A
US Pontedera vs Pro Sesto
2:2
Dec 13, 2020 Serie C - Group A
Pro Sesto vs US Pontedera
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pro Sesto Compare

Top Goalscorer Costantino R.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

US Pontedera Compare

Avg xG / game 0.69
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pro Sesto 95 / 100
US Pontedera 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pro Sesto US Pontedera

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pro Sesto Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: US Pontedera conceded in 93% of 28 recent games.

Pro Sesto's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Pro Sesto remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Pro Sesto VS US Pontedera
1.25 Goals Scored 0.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Pro Sesto

(Home)
27 Sept
Pro Sesto
6 : 1
Oltrepo
20 Sept
Crema
0 : 3
Pro Sesto
16 Sept
Pro Sesto
3 : 0
US Pontedera
12 Sept
Varese FC
0 : 2
Pro Sesto
06 Sept
Pro Sesto
2 : 3
Lentigione
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US Pontedera

(Away)
20 Sept
US Pontedera
0 : 3
Varese FC
16 Sept
Pro Sesto
3 : 0
US Pontedera
12 Sept
US Pontedera
2 : 3
Pro Patria
06 Sept
Castellanzese
3 : 1
US Pontedera
12 Aug
Tau
0 : 1
US Pontedera
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pistoiese 5 5 0 0 14:1 15
2 Pro Sesto 5 4 0 1 16:4 12
3 Pro Patria 5 4 0 1 10:4 12
4 USD Casatese 5 3 1 1 10:6 10
5 Lentigione 5 3 1 1 7:5 10
6 Castellanzese 5 3 0 2 11:4 9
7 Sant'Angelo 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
8 Pavia 5 1 4 0 4:1 7
9 Cittadella Vis Modena 5 2 1 2 4:4 7
10 Correggese 5 2 1 2 5:8 7
11 Varese FC 5 1 3 1 5:4 6
12 Solbiatese 5 1 2 2 2:6 5
13 Tropical Coriano 4 1 1 2 3:4 4
14 Varesina 5 1 1 3 7:10 4
15 Oltrepo 5 1 0 4 3:12 3
16 Arconatese 5 0 2 3 3:12 2
17 Crema 5 0 1 4 1:12 1
18 US Pontedera 4 0 0 4 3:12 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group D (Play Out)