Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
Progreso host CA Cerro in the Liga AUF Uruguaya. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Progreso at 0.72 goals for, 1.45 against; CA Cerro at 0.71 for, 1.46 against. Head-to-head, Progreso have won 3 to CA Cerro's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Mar 14, 2026, ending 0:1. Model xG sits at 0.88 vs 1.19, favoring CA Cerro. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Under 2.5 goals.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- CA Cerro have won more games recently than Progreso.
- 34% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Progreso | CA Cerro |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 6 | 8 |
| Draws | 4 | 6 |
| Losses | 19 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.45 | 1.46 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.88 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
CA Cerro let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.
Games between these two average 1.80 goals.
Progreso scored in 52% of their last 29 games.
Progreso has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Recent Form & Match History
Progreso
(Home)CA Cerro
(Away)League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool M. | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11:1 | 13 |
| 2 | Montevideo City | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11:3 | 12 |
| 3 | CA Cerro | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5:6 | 10 |
| 4 | Juventud | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:4 | 8 |
| 5 | Maldonado | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:4 | 8 |
| 6 | Racing Montevideo | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5:3 | 8 |
| 7 | Boston River | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:5 | 8 |
| 8 | Penarol | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 9 | Club Nacional | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5:6 | 7 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 11 | Progreso | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2:4 | 6 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 5:6 | 4 |
| 13 | Central Esp. | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3:7 | 4 |
| 14 | Danubio | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0:6 | 2 |
| 15 | Defensor Sp. | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3:10 | 2 |
| 16 | Albion | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3:8 | 0 |
