Sport Picks

Uruguay

Copa Uruguay

Progreso

0 - 1

Club Nacional

Our Tip

Match Events

32'

Correa T.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. The second leg ended 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Progreso

20%

Draws

44%

Club Nacional

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Club Nacional

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence

Look at the last few games and Club Nacional come out ahead of Progreso on wins alone.
44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
Club Nacional arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor Club Nacional, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
These two have met 5 times recently and Club Nacional have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%

Progreso Clean Sheet 19%

Club Nacional Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Progreso	Club Nacional
Matches Played	29	31
Wins	8	15
Draws	3	5
Losses	18	11
Goals Scored	0.83	1.39
Goals Conceded	1.38	1.35
Expected Goals (xG)	0.81	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Copa Uruguay

Progreso vs Club Nacional

0:1

Aug 23, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya

Club Nacional vs Progreso

1:0

Aug 2, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya

Club Nacional vs Progreso

2:1

Feb 21, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya

Progreso vs Club Nacional

0:1

Jan 22, 2026 Copa de la Liga AUF

Club Nacional vs Progreso

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Progreso Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62

Avg xA / game 0.41

Club Nacional Compare

Top Goalscorer Correa T.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Progreso 32 / 100

Club Nacional 41 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Progreso Club Nacional

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Club Nacional Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Club Nacional's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Progreso stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Progreso scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Progreso VS Club Nacional

0.5 Goals Scored 1.13

1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13

50% Over 1.5 63%

25% Over 2.5 38%

13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Progreso

(Home)

26 Sept

Progreso

2 : 1

Racing Montevideo

19 Sept

Boston River

1 : 2

Progreso

16 Sept

Progreso

0 : 1

Club Nacional

13 Sept

Progreso

1 : 3

CA Cerro

07 Sept

Albion

0 : 1

Progreso

Page 1 of 6

Club Nacional

(Away)

26 Sept

Cerro Largo

0 : 2

Club Nacional

20 Sept

Club Nacional

3 : 2

Defensor Sp.

16 Sept

Progreso

0 : 1

Club Nacional

12 Sept

Wanderers

1 : 1

Club Nacional

06 Sept

Club Nacional

2 : 2

Juventud

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