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Progreso vs Maldonado - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

2'
Menosse H.
20'
Cristobal R.
32'
Gonzalez M.

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Progreso and Maldonado finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Maldonado.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Progreso
20%
Draws
47%
Maldonado
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Maldonado

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Maldonado come out ahead of Progreso on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Progreso Clean Sheet 14%
Maldonado Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Progreso Maldonado
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 15
Draws 1 8
Losses 19 6
Goals Scored 0.79 1.76
Goals Conceded 1.34 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Maldonado
0:2
Jul 18, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Maldonado
1:0
Feb 14, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Progreso
2:0
Oct 6, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Progreso
2:2
Jul 21, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Maldonado
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Progreso Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Maldonado Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonzalez M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tabo C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Progreso 31 / 100
Maldonado 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Progreso Maldonado

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maldonado Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Progreso stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Progreso scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Maldonado let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Progreso VS Maldonado
1.25 Goals Scored 2.25
1 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Progreso

(Home)
01 Nov
Progreso
0 : 2
Defensor Sp.
25 Oct
Wanderers
0 : 1
Progreso
17 Oct
Progreso
2 : 0
Juventud
10 Oct
Penarol
1 : 1
Progreso
03 Oct
Liverpool M.
3 : 2
Progreso
Page 1 of 6

Maldonado

(Away)
02 Nov
Albion
0 : 0
Maldonado
28 Oct
Porongos
0 : 4
Maldonado
24 Oct
Maldonado
2 : 1
Danubio
19 Oct
Club Nacional
3 : 2
Maldonado
15 Oct
Maldonado
4 : 1
Albion
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Liverpool M. 13 9 3 1 22:8 30
2 Montevideo City 13 9 1 3 26:14 28
3 Club Nacional 13 8 2 3 19:13 26
4 Maldonado 13 6 4 3 18:10 22
5 Penarol 13 6 5 2 17:9 22
6 Racing Montevideo 13 5 4 4 18:14 19
7 Progreso 13 6 1 6 13:15 19
8 Juventud 13 4 6 3 12:10 18
9 CA Cerro 13 5 3 5 15:19 18
10 Wanderers 13 4 4 5 14:19 16
11 Boston River 13 4 3 6 15:17 15
12 Albion 13 4 1 8 15:20 13
13 Defensor Sp. 13 3 3 7 16:23 12
14 Danubio 13 2 4 7 7:15 10
15 Cerro Largo 13 1 6 6 10:17 9
16 Central Esp. 13 2 2 9 8:22 8
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)