Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Progreso vs Maldonado

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

2'
Menosse H.
20'
Cristobal R.
32'
Gonzalez M.

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Progreso and Maldonado finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Maldonado.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Progreso
30%
Draws
47%
Maldonado
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Maldonado

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Maldonado come out ahead of Progreso on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Progreso Clean Sheet 16%
Maldonado Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Progreso Maldonado
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 6 14
Draws 4 7
Losses 18 7
Goals Scored 0.75 1.46
Goals Conceded 1.46 0.96
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Maldonado
0:2
Jul 18, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Maldonado
1:0
Feb 14, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Progreso
2:0
Oct 6, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Progreso
2:2
Jul 21, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Maldonado
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Progreso Compare

Avg xG / game 0.43
Avg xA / game 0.28

Maldonado Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonzalez M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tabo C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Progreso 31 / 100
Maldonado 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Progreso Maldonado

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maldonado Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maldonado let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Progreso scored in 50% of their last 28 outings.

Progreso went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Progreso VS Maldonado
0.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Progreso

(Home)
29 Aug
Progreso
1 : 0
Danubio
26 Aug
Progreso
0 : 2
River Plate Montevideo
23 Aug
Club Nacional
1 : 0
Progreso
16 Aug
Progreso
0 : 2
Maldonado
08 Aug
Central Esp.
1 : 0
Progreso
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Maldonado

(Away)
29 Aug
Juventud
2 : 0
Maldonado
22 Aug
Maldonado
0 : 0
Penarol
16 Aug
Progreso
0 : 2
Maldonado
10 Aug
Maldonado
2 : 2
Racing Montevideo
01 Aug
Maldonado
0 : 0
Juventud
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Liverpool M. 4 3 1 0 10:1 10
2 Montevideo City 3 3 0 0 9:2 9
3 Boston River 4 2 2 0 6:4 8
4 Juventud 4 2 1 1 4:2 7
5 Wanderers 4 2 1 1 6:6 7
6 CA Cerro 4 2 1 1 4:6 7
7 Club Nacional 4 2 0 2 3:4 6
8 Racing Montevideo 3 1 2 0 4:2 5
9 Maldonado 4 1 2 1 4:4 5
10 Cerro Largo 4 0 4 0 4:4 4
11 Penarol 3 1 1 1 2:2 4
12 Progreso 4 1 0 3 1:4 3
13 Central Esp. 4 1 0 3 2:6 3
14 Danubio 4 0 2 2 0:2 2
15 Defensor Sp. 4 0 1 3 2:9 1
16 Albion 3 0 0 3 3:6 0
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)