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Progreso vs Racing Montevideo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo
Progreso Logo

Progreso

2 - 1
FT
Racing Montevideo Logo

Racing Montevideo

Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Juambeltz M.
46'
Sub
Gonzalez F. In: Bosca J.
Out: Gonzalez F.
46'
Sub
Da Silva S. In: Suarez F.
Out: Da Silva S.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Progreso in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Progreso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Progreso
15%
Draws
34%
Racing Montevideo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Progreso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Racing Montevideo lately — more wins on the board than Progreso.
  • Win probability leans Progreso's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Progreso Clean Sheet 68%
Racing Montevideo Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Progreso Racing Montevideo
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 8 11
Draws 2 10
Losses 19 7
Goals Scored 0.83 1
Goals Conceded 1.41 0.96
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Racing Montevideo
2:1
Mar 26, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Racing Montevideo vs Progreso
1:1
Sep 29, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Racing Montevideo vs Progreso
0:0
Jun 22, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Racing Montevideo vs Progreso
3:0
Mar 30, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Racing Montevideo
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Progreso Compare

Top Goalscorer Juambeltz M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lopez N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Racing Montevideo Compare

Top Goalscorer Da Silva E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Progreso 77 / 100
Racing Montevideo 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Progreso Racing Montevideo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Progreso Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Racing Montevideo let in goals in 64% of their last 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Away concern: Racing Montevideo has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Progreso scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Progreso VS Racing Montevideo
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Progreso

(Home)
03 Oct
Liverpool M.
3 : 2
Progreso
26 Sept
Progreso
2 : 1
Racing Montevideo
19 Sept
Boston River
1 : 2
Progreso
16 Sept
Progreso
0 : 1
Club Nacional
13 Sept
Progreso
1 : 3
CA Cerro
Page 1 of 6

Racing Montevideo

(Away)
04 Oct
Racing Montevideo
0 : 1
Penarol
26 Sept
Progreso
2 : 1
Racing Montevideo
20 Sept
Liverpool M.
0 : 0
Racing Montevideo
17 Sept
Juventud
3 : 0
Racing Montevideo
12 Sept
Racing Montevideo
3 : 2
Boston River
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Liverpool M. 9 6 2 1 17:7 20
2 Montevideo City 9 6 1 2 19:10 19
3 Penarol 9 6 2 1 15:6 19
4 Maldonado 9 5 2 2 13:5 17
5 Club Nacional 9 5 2 2 13:9 17
6 Wanderers 9 4 3 2 12:11 15
7 Juventud 9 3 5 1 10:6 14
8 CA Cerro 9 4 2 3 9:11 14
9 Racing Montevideo 9 3 3 3 9:8 12
10 Progreso 9 4 0 5 9:12 12
11 Boston River 9 2 3 4 10:12 9
12 Defensor Sp. 9 2 2 5 9:16 8
13 Danubio 9 1 4 4 4:10 7
14 Cerro Largo 9 0 5 4 6:12 5
15 Central Esp. 9 1 2 6 5:16 5
16 Albion 9 1 0 8 9:18 3
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)